Midweek update

Hello traders and welcome to the mid week review. Recapping some of the price action setups from Monday:

1. AUD/USD: Decent setups didn't eventuate, but price action is moving in the expected direction.

2. GBP/AUD: Had an awesome 4 hour pin bar setup, but because I got lazy, missed out on the huge move up. Let that be a lesson. You need to treat this like a profession, or expect to miss out often.

3. XAU/USD: Gold had a nice run up, but seeing a nice reversal setup at some key resistance on the 8 hour chart. Pin fakey setup off an inside bar setup. We also see some divergence in the RSI. If the pin closes below 1640, will place an order to sell at 1640.8 with initial target at 1625. If we get some follow through, will look to exit at 1600. Otherwise will close out at 1625.

Watching closely ...

Hello traders. Welcome to start of the week. Looking for some breaks this week with a couple of interesting setups.

First look at GBP/AUD. Have a sustained break back above the 1.495 handle. Looking for a setup on a retest of support targeting the .382 Fibo from the May decline.

Next is AUD/USD. Price action came close to retesting the bottom of the channel, but not close enough. Suggests a retest shortly. Still looking for a short setup, but will wait to see the moving averages create a 'death' cross with the horizontal resistance area at 1.0466.

Can also watch for a clean break of the bottom channel with entry on a retest setup.

 

Getting back into it ...

Heelllooo traders. I took a really long break (although it really wasn't break it was mainly work) from updating this blog. I plan to start getting active about it again for the new financial year.

Last couple of months have been quite interesting as usual as we see most US dollar pairs in a corrective pattern. The risk thermometer (SPX500) is looking to retest the March highs earlier in 2012. General market expectations point to bucket loads of monetary easing which will get asset prices back on the bull path.

For the return post, concentrating on AUD/USD and GOLD.

AUD/USD
- Reached the top of the triangle pattern formation
- Top of current channel up trend
- Looking for a short term reversal to the bottom of channel
- 10 day mva starting to flatten
- Watching for sell confirmation

GOLD

- Consolidation moves within triangle pattern

- Looking for patterns pointing towards a resumption of the downtrend

- Break of downward sloping trend line intersection with horizontal resistance at 1640, 1650 to confirm resumption of uptrend

Back from holiday ...

Hi all. Back from a brief trip to Japan for the snow for two weeks, hence the gap in updates. First week back trading has been a busy one with Greece in default and economic growth slowing all around the world. However, it's not all bad news with the latest positive print this week of US data including a healthy NFP figure.

I've been a bit lazy this weekend so haven't properly prepared the weekend wrap up. However, watch this space for an update for market open. Talk to you all then.

Welcome to the new week traders. Apparently it is a public holiday in the States today, so won't be expecting major moves unless more news comes ount. As I mentioned last week, market optimism was on the rise. This was helped along by China's decision to reduce the reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points. We witnessed a gap up in the market today which may accelerate once the Greek bail out deal is confirmed. However, still looking for this market rally to be well capped at current highs given the sluggish fundamentals coming out of Europe.

Recapping last week's trade on EUR/GBP. I did come away with a small profit on this one. I booked the trade once the 4 hour candle reached the top of the ascending channel. As you can see, the EUR took a dive into the market close as traders hedged their bets or closed positions into the weekend. However, the positive risk sentiment has now helped this pair to test the next high at the top of the ascending channel.

Good luck in your trades this week and we'll catch up again soon.

Optimism is back ...

As you can tell from the title, risk sentiment has taken a bit of a positive turn and we had a ton of traders caught on short covering. If you had followed my previous post, I left off with a short position on the Aussie dollar targeting the 1.065 area. However, the better than expected jobs report knocked out my trailing stop, then proceeded to hit target (rat bastard!). The market is a tough mistress to tame.

Optimism has returned with some positive news suggesting Greece will get the money after all; surprise, surprise.

For this evening I watched for bid setups on the Euro. I picked out the EUR/GBP for this. After positive UK data, the pair took a dive into the 0.829 area. At this stage it looks like a nice bear trap has been sprung. You can see from the chart we have a inside bar fake out setup. Aggressive trader that I am, I have taken the trade with a long position in EUR.

We'll see where we are at before market close (if the American session hasn't stopped me out). Good luck for the last 24 hours and we'll chat again next week.

Greece Issues Persist

Evening traders. Welcome to the next post of what has been a pretty good week - for me anyway.

Continuing from my previous post, Aussie did put in a 4 hour pin bar during the close of the NY session. However, I didn't take the trade on this one.

Some nice retail data out of New Zealand and better than expected consumer confidence figures gave it a nice boost back into the 1.075 area. Aussie maintained its gains, so I looked elsewhere for opportunities.

Trade of the day for me was the EUR/USD. I took a short position on a fakey, pin setup on the 1 hour chart. Continued poor headlines out of Greece helped the trade to my target, netting a nice 70 pip profit.

I have now also short the AUD/USD based on a 4 hour candle close below 1.075. Fundamentals looked well aligned with the short term downward trend looking set to continue, driven by the overall risk negative outlook. Plus some event risk coming up on the docket later in the day with the Aussie unemployment rate expected to increase to 5.3%. Hoping this will keep a lid on big bullish moves into the close of the NY session.