Weekly Forecast 12/11/2012

General Commentary
SPX 500 in decline. Clean break of 1400 level off the previous week’s pin.
USDOLLAR index still at the top of the current range after a test of the range bottom. Pair Price Bias Comments AUD/CAD 1.027, 1.0386 Bull Break and hold of 1.0386. Inside day closing out the week. EUR/AUD 1.22259, 1.2374 Bear Inside day. Watch for rotation back into 1.2374. GBP/AUD 1.53109, 1.54658, 1.5634 Bear AUD/JPY 81.969, 82.959, 83.563 Range Pin bar at Friday close. AUD/NZD 1.269 Bull Watch for rotation back into resistance turned support @ 1.269 EUR/USD 1.25907, 1.2803 Bear Break of double top pattern, targeting 1.25907. NZD/USD 0.81019, 0.83551 Range Ranging market. AUD/USD 1.03238, 1.04091 Range Price action closing back into the range. USD/CHF 0.93915, 0.94301, 0.94704 Bull Tentative break of previous resistance at 0.94704 GBP/USD 1.5757, 1.59134, 1.59774 Bear Accelerated losses below 1.59774. Looking to target 1.5757. USD/JPY 79.273, 79.65 Bear Friday pin bar close off key support level. EUR/GBP 0.79527, 0.80038 Bear Watch for retest of 0.80 level. GBP/CAD 1.57797, 1.59528 Bear Engulfing bearish candle on Friday. EUR/CAD 1.26, 1.28 Range Price action consolidating between 23.6% and 38.2% Fib. EUR/JPY - Bear XAU/USD 1713 Bull False break of 1698.3. Price action pushing back through 1725.

Lack of discipline

Good evening traders and welcome to the new trading week. Wrapping up from last week, I slipped up in trader discipline. Didn't follow the plan and traded on the 4 hour AUD/USD with a poor setup and execution. Result: 34 pip loss.

Market is always waiting for slip ups like the above, and it serves as a reminder that we trade not to gamble, but to take an objective approach to trading with defined expected outcomes.

Booooo ...

Hello traders and welcome again to another post. Today has been a day of surprises. Melbourne Cup was won by Green Moon. A little known horse that smashed the favourites by a good length.

The other surprise being the RBA putting interest rates on hold, turning my winning trade into a loss. Had tightened my stop loss to lock in some profit, but volatility gapped right over it - what a load of F#$%#@ HORSE S@#!.

Now that's off my chest, recapping the Asian session. Big movers were obviously the Aussie crosses, but quite elsewhere as the world waits with baited breath on the outcome of the Presidential race in the States.

With that, I'll probably sign off for a couple of days and make my next post when there's something relevant to post on. Till then, good luck trading all, and good luck to all (including myself) who entered the record topping $100 million jackpot Oz Lotto draw tonight.

05/11/2012 Market Open

Good evening traders. Welcome to another post at the fxtradingcorner. Market is mildly risk adverse today. I took the AUD/JPY trade from the weekend report, but did not take the Euro or GBP crosses with the AUD. When I looked at the chart this morning, the European crosses looked like quite a precipitous trade. Instead, I setup an order for AUD/JPY which is now in a bit of profit. We'll see how this pans out.

For all the Aussie blog viewers, tomorrow is Melbourne Cup Day, so more festivities ahead - Hooray!

Trade Report Week Beginning 05/11/2012

Hi all. Hope you had a good weekend. Here is the trade report for the coming week.

 

 

How time flies ...

Hello traders and welcome to another post at the fxtradingcorner. I didn't even realise that it's already been a month since my last post. Things have been quite busy and coupled with a bit of laziness in the evenings means I'm less inclined to create the daily and weekly updates.

However, today I'll do quick recap of the month. Markets have really been in consolidation mode. Not much big news really with the overall backdrop focused on Spain and the American Presidential elections.

A recap of trades in Oct 2012 so far:

Time stamp	Oct
Years	2012
Count of Flag	Column Labels
Row Labels	Loss	Win	Grand Total
AUD/USD	2		2
EUR/CAD		1	1
GBP/USD	1	1	2
AUD/JPY		1	1
Grand Total	3	3	6

Not too bad for the month. At the moment, I have carried a short position into the weekend close on the AUD/NZD, off the back of a pin bar signal:

There was also a nice setup in EUR/CAD, but I had removed the order which I had setup together with AUD/NZD order. Didn't properly reviewed the order, otherwise would be in an additional 50 pip profit. From the screen grab, you can see a very nice pin bar setup off of former resistance turned support. A better trade than the AUD/NZD probably.

Watch this space Monday for an update. Fingers crossed for a favourable gap down in the AUD/NZD.