Welcome to the new week traders. Apparently it is a public holiday in the States today, so won't be expecting major moves unless more news comes ount. As I mentioned last week, market optimism was on the rise. This was helped along by China's decision to reduce the reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points. We witnessed a gap up in the market today which may accelerate once the Greek bail out deal is confirmed. However, still looking for this market rally to be well capped at current highs given the sluggish fundamentals coming out of Europe.
Recapping last week's trade on EUR/GBP. I did come away with a small profit on this one. I booked the trade once the 4 hour candle reached the top of the ascending channel. As you can see, the EUR took a dive into the market close as traders hedged their bets or closed positions into the weekend. However, the positive risk sentiment has now helped this pair to test the next high at the top of the ascending channel.
Good luck in your trades this week and we'll catch up again soon.
As you can tell from the title, risk sentiment has taken a bit of a positive turn and we had a ton of traders caught on short covering. If you had followed my previous post, I left off with a short position on the Aussie dollar targeting the 1.065 area. However, the better than expected jobs report knocked out my trailing stop, then proceeded to hit target (rat bastard!). The market is a tough mistress to tame.
Optimism has returned with some positive news suggesting Greece will get the money after all; surprise, surprise.
For this evening I watched for bid setups on the Euro. I picked out the EUR/GBP for this. After positive UK data, the pair took a dive into the 0.829 area. At this stage it looks like a nice bear trap has been sprung. You can see from the chart we have a inside bar fake out setup. Aggressive trader that I am, I have taken the trade with a long position in EUR.
We'll see where we are at before market close (if the American session hasn't stopped me out). Good luck for the last 24 hours and we'll chat again next week.
Evening traders. Welcome to the next post of what has been a pretty good week - for me anyway.
Continuing from my previous post, Aussie did put in a 4 hour pin bar during the close of the NY session. However, I didn't take the trade on this one.
Some nice retail data out of New Zealand and better than expected consumer confidence figures gave it a nice boost back into the 1.075 area. Aussie maintained its gains, so I looked elsewhere for opportunities.
Trade of the day for me was the EUR/USD. I took a short position on a fakey, pin setup on the 1 hour chart. Continued poor headlines out of Greece helped the trade to my target, netting a nice 70 pip profit.
I have now also short the AUD/USD based on a 4 hour candle close below 1.075. Fundamentals looked well aligned with the short term downward trend looking set to continue, driven by the overall risk negative outlook. Plus some event risk coming up on the docket later in the day with the Aussie unemployment rate expected to increase to 5.3%. Hoping this will keep a lid on big bullish moves into the close of the NY session.
Hello traders. I have been a bit lazy this weekend. Hence not providing the weekly update. Lots of things happening over the weekend with Greece again at the forefront. i won't repeat the news here as everybody is aware of all that's happening across the news wires. Instead, for this post, I'll give an update on two trades which came off well for me. One last Friday, and one today.
GBP/CAD
For this pair, I did something I wouldn't normally do, and that is trade down on the 15 minute chart. I didn't time the entry exactly right either.
I entered the trade on the blue 15min candle which hit the first resistant line. Nothing particularly significant about this pattern. It was a false break of the previous candle range. It didn't fit any particular description of a candle. I had entered while it was in the process of forming a pin bar, but in the end turned out to be cross between a spinning top and a pin. Entering before confirmation of a signal is always risky. I immediately took losses as you can tell by the following candle which whip sawed a little bit. Luckily I had set the stop quite wide. In the end, I caught a lucky break and the trade went my way. On a bad day, this could have turned out to be a bad trade. Need to learn from these aggressive impulse entries.
GBP/USD
Happy about this one. Picked out an inside bar - pin bar setup on the 4 hour chart. Short term trend was bearish, prices rejected between 20 and 10 period SMA. Entered 1.5802 with a stop just above the mother pin bar. Outcome: a low risk 77.9 pip profit -> a 1:3 win.
Some good data out about an hour ago from European session. Has supported a pop higher in most US based pairs (to the detriment of the dollar). Will be watching out for any bullish continuation signals later tonight or early tomorrow.
As always, good luck trading out there.
Hello traders and welcome to a new week in the FX world. We finished last week with a bit of volatility. After NFP, Euro fell then retraced half of its losses. Heading into the new week, and it is under pressure with Greece issues at the forefront. Lots of pairs hitting heavy resistance so will watch for signs and confirmation of reversals.
News of the day goes to the weaker than expected retail sales figure for Australia. Market expects another 25 basis point off the current rate. About time we went on this easing cycle, mortgage repayments are killing me ;).
Strategy this week is watching for reversal for the Aussie, Euro, and GBP.
Hello traders, and happy Australia Day. Big news coming out of Wednesday is the Federal Reserves dovish stance on monetary policy. FOMC minutes highlighted significant headwinds for the US economy and will keep "easy money" on tap for a while. Translation? US Dollar hammering. I had gone with a short on the GBP/USD which was initially looking good until the report came out. Guess it was a surprise given the expectation leading up to the announcement was a bit on the side of "policy normalisation."
This suggests accelerated losses for the dollar in the near term unless the European situation deteriorates. At the moment, even with all the talk of technical default, the risk based assets seem to very well supported. The market is in "happy land" at the moment where it's nothing but sunflowers, butterflies, and blue skies (can you tell how pissed I am?!).
This has capped off a horrible January for me. Hopefully I can end on a good note. A couple of setups going into the end of the month.
Main one is a short setup on the AUD/NZD. Fundamentally, the low CPI figure, weaker economic indicators, and expectations of rate cut cycle has diminished the attractiveness of the AUD. New Zealand seems to be coming out on top in this respect given their central bank is still taking a wait and see approach.
Technicals illustrate the continued rejection of the 1.300 price area with price action constrained within a downward sub channel and within a larger descending channel. I shall be watching for a decent short setup on this one.
Second pair I am looking to trade is the GBP/USD. At the moment, it is simply surviving off risk sentiment and leeching off Euro strength. Economic indicators and BOE minutes have been horrible to say the least so can't see why else this pair is at where it's at. Certainly it has been fairing worse against all other cross currency pairs.
Any who, this pair is in a strong bull trend at the moment. Last night finished with a pin bar off previous 38.2% Fibonacci as well as prior trend channel resistance. This suggests more gains to come. Not too sure whether I should be aggressive about this one today given the remarkable run it has had. Will let you know if I do take the plunge on this one.
That's it from me today. Good luck trading out there guys and we'll proably chat again in the weekend wrap up.
Hello traders and welcome to this weeks trade wrap up. The past week has seen risk appetite continue to improve. I attempted a long position trade in the USD/CAD during the week. Didn't work out so well and it put me about 27 pips in the red. Not a good start to the year!
Still stalking the AUD/USD daily waiting for that reversal signal to hit. In the midst of all the risk-on sentiment, it has finally managed a small break of the upper downward sloping trendline from its historic highs.
Lost of room for a downside movement if this resistance holds.
Looking at the EUR/USD, the single currency had a nice corrective move this week. Early into the new week, there looks like a possibility of one more leg up. If I get a clear trading signal, I will go long in the Euro. Can't find the weakness in the USD at the moment.
