Hello traders. Sorry about the absence during the week. My daytime job has been a bit hectic and I haven't had a chance to post any new updates.
For this week, my winnings and losses balanced out and my account was basically unchanged. The short term 'short' setup on the EUR/USD from my last post did eventuate on a 1 hour chart, but (surprise, surprise) I didn't take the trade. This cost me a quick 90 pip profit.
Ultimately, the EUR did continue its climb afterward.
This highlights a continued weakness in my trading which is the lack of discipline to setup the trade and stick with it for better or worse, coupled with a bad habit of over leverage. I also stopped blogging which meant I didn't have the advantage of having my thoughts on paper for analysis.
Let this be a warning to all would be traders. Have your strategy and stick to it - be confident of it. In addition, don't stop diarising your trades and analysis. It's a very important way of continually improving through self review.
Keep an eye out, I will be putting in a weekend update on all the trading pairs I am interested in.
EUR/USD
Hello traders, and welcome again to my blog spot. An update on yesterday's trade. Initial momentum carried me into a 30 pip profit. However, a fake out formation on the inside bar setup started to form close to the first hour of the trade.
To protect the position given the amount of volatility, I moved my stop to cost. This was ultimately stopped out, and what ensued was a whole day's worth of choppy trading across the remaining hours of the American session.
EU summit clearly in focus today with the price action little moved. Risk aversion is starting to creep onto the scene with other risk pairs off weekly highs and Gold spiking above 1700 level.
At this point, I am now considering a bearish position for Euro. However, I am notorious for taking the wrong side of these sorts of trades. Looking at the chart, there is potential to break out to either side.
Will look for a short setup in any case and confluence between 1 hour and 4 hour charts. Open profit target with an initial soft target in the 1.3820 area.
Good luck everyone.
EUR/USD
Hey everyone. Hope we all had a nice start to the trading week. Having a look at our assessment of the AUD/USD, price did in fact break the triangle pattern we were talking about and is now tracking higher. Will be keeping a close eye on a potential end to the 5th wave to enter a short position.
In focus today is a EUR/USD trade I decided to take. This is a high risk trade given that there is significant event risk coming up in the form of the deadline for the EU summit. Based on this fundamental event risk, price could move either way.
However, for the short term, I have gone with a purely technical trade. These are the main points of confluence:
- Triangle pattern completion and breakout suggesting a continuation
- 1 hr inside bar, pin bar setup off of the 10 MA and 20 MA
- Upward sloping trendline dynamic support
- 4 hr doji off the 10 MVA
Note strong resistance line at 1.3936 level. Given tightening to the upper range, expecting a break to the upside. Entry @ 1.3921 which was perhaps a little early. Stop @ 1.3872 and a target @ 1.4050, giving a risk to reward ratio of 1:2.5.
We shall see how this plays out over the European and American sessions. Wish me luck : ).
AUD/USD
Good morning traders. It is Saturday 22/10 11:03 AM (AEST). Just taking a quick look over what has transpired over the European and American sessions last night.
We saw the completion of our triangle pattern which has now witnessed the break out to the upside as we had discussed in the previous post.
Zooming out onto the daily chart, we can also see a strong bullish candle close above the downward channel of the AUD/USD and the 100 day MA.
Going into the new week, with the EU summit clearly still in focus, we will watch for a retest of former resistance levels in the 1.0265/75 area. If we get a bullish price action signal, then we will look at taking a long position and see how far this 5th wave leg can take us.
However, note heavy resistance zone in the 1.0390/1.0435 area which is also where the 200 day MA is closely guarding.
AUD/USD
All right, my first analysis post. Going through the charts this morning, most of the pairs I normally check out are all in similar consolidation patterns.
Given the amount of volatility and the influence risk sentiment has had in dictating price action over the past week, I have chosen one of the more risk sensitive pairs for today's post.
Taking a closer look at the 4 hour chart, there is a completed 5 wave triangle pattern with a strong support level @ 1.0160/65.
Zooming out I have suggested the following Elliott wave count which points to a higher likelihood of a bullish breakout from the consolidation area.
This is also inline with the current strong bullish uptrend. Looking for another wave 5 up to complete the wave A correction before beginning a B wave leg down.
Will watch for:
- Bullish price action setup at the 1.0160/65 support area or
- If a breakout occurs, a price action setup based on a retest of former resistance.
Upcoming events:
I think the biggest event risk item just about everyone (who doesn't live under a rock) is watching for is the EU summit over the weekend. Whether decisive action can be taken to stem the systemic risks in the Euro region remains to be seen which will drive price action in the following week.
Hi All,
I decided to start a blog to chronicle my success/failure at being a forex market trader. I do this in the hope that it will actually improve my trading.
Not sure if this will help anyone else who reads this, but nonetheless I hope it adds value.
I just wanted to give a holler out to Nial Fuller from Learn To Trade The Market as his website by far has taught me the most about trading using price action. I highly recommend everyone who has an interest in this area to visit his site www.learntotradethemarket.com.
Good luck to all of you who have chosen fx market as their calling to make their millions.
