Friday, 4 November 2011

Aftermath ...

Soooo ... what did we have?

1. NFP added 80,000 jobs. 15,000 less than forecast
2. Unemployment rate improved by 0.1%

In the lead up to the release, we started seeing some choppiness in the price action. No doubt traders placing their bets early!

Post announcement we witnessed a nasty 15 min whipsaw where price oscillated in an approx. 60 pip range

I jumped in a little early myself at 1.3853 (top of resistance) and set a stop of 1.3867 as it was looking like a fake out. Price made a nice spike to 1.38675! KNOCKED OUT BY 0.0005 WTF! Serves me right for not waiting for the confirmation of close below resistance (and setting a stingy stop loss when it was actually more ideal to set at the 1.387 level). On candle close, I made another short entry at 1.3835, this time with a stop level at 1.387. I just closed out the trade at 1.3727. Decent 108 pip profit. Could have been a bit more greedy, but I had already gotten more than a 3:1 payback so ok with that.

Now before crying "gambler!" There was method to this madness as before the trade, I had checked out price action on the H1 and H4 charts. H1 had already formed a 'fakey' price action setup, although the tail on the 15min chart was what sort of sealed the deal. H4 was also in the midst of forming a long tail fakey as a result of this. On top of this, I am trading in the direction of the overall trend. These points of confluence gave me confidence to take a more aggressive entry.


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