Weekly wrap up 14/07/2013

Hey traders and welcome to this week's wrap up. An extremely volatile week with the FOMC minutes throwing more confusion into the mix; print more money, don't print more money, who knows what the Fed's thinking anymore. Key break outs from previous week somewhat negated on the back of the past week's event risks.

Aussie dollar weakness continues unabated with weaker unemployment figures weighing down the commodity currency. Even the promise of potential continuation of QE3 could not stop the free fall. AUD/USD however has put in a reverse hammer at key psychological level. Will see what happens this week.

Speaking of which, another big week with GDP and CPI figures on tap - I wonder when the fun will stop...ಠ_ಠ.

Key levels to watch

Pair	Level(s) to watch	Description	Bias
EUR/USD	1.29924, 1.32	Strong close above 1.3 level. Changes the bearish outlook to neutral. Short term bullish bias in place.	Neutral
EUR/JPY	128.795, 131.086, 132.745	Upward trending channel maintained. Likely to retest 1.325 level. First line of resistance at 1.31086.	Ranging
EUR/GBP	0.85898	Consolidation above 0.86. Continue to watch for long opportunity.	Bullish
EUR/AUD	1.39769, 1.4415	False break of head and shoulders pattern; new high set. Short term bullish, but still looking for short opportunity.	Bullish
EUR/CHF	1.2363, 1.238	Close to the downside. False break of 1.238 level. Watch for short opportunity.	Ranging
AUD/USD	0.90435, 0.91634	Extremely oversold; another new low set. Reverse hammer on the weekly chart. Watch for long opportunity.	Bearish
AUD/JPY	89.087, 92.95	Strong rejection of price at 93 level. Looking for a restest of 89.087 support.	Ranging
NZD/USD	0.78289, 0.74565	Reverse hammer on the weekly. May see price consolidating above 0.76868 level.	Ranging
AUD/NZD	1.16521	Bearish close; looking like another extension to the downside. Watching price closely at 1.16521 level	Bearish
AUD/CAD	0.94815	Another bearish weekly close signalling an extended run to the down side. Watching price at 0.94815 level.	Bearish
USD/CHF	0.95132, 0.95529	Price consolidating this week below 0.95 after the previous week's false break. Should see one more leg down in the short term to 0.93 level.	Ranging
USD/JPY	96.995, 99.9	Loss of 100 level. Looking at range between 100 and 97.	Ranging
USD/CAD	1.04177, 1.05524	Loss of 1.055 level. Consolidation below this level for the week.	Ranging
XAU/USD	1321	Stronger bullish close this week. Watching for short opportunity towards 1321 level.	Bearish
SPX500	1686	Continued bull run on stocks. Looks to retest 1686 record high.	Bullish
US Oil	103.6	Break of long term triangle. Watch for long opportunity this week.	Bullish
GBP/USD	1.52, 1.52813	Retracement this week. Watch for short opportunity at 1.52813 level.	Bearish
GBP/JPY	151.727, 149.434	Bearish scenario still valid. Watching for a break to the downside of the current range.	Bearish
GBP/CAD	1.58770, 1.58	Break of upward sloping trend line. Well into correction move now, targeting 1.55. Watching for retracement entry opportunity.	Bearish
GBP/AUD	1.63828, 1.662, 1.68729	Close above 1.662. Head and shoulders pattern faked out. Price back into consolidation ranges.	Ranging

Correction underway?

Hello traders and welcome to this evening's commentary. An interesting day spurred on abysmal UK data. This has seen some interesting action in the Aussie and European crosses. Unfortunately I was unable to take advantage of a great pin bar fake out setup on the GBP/AUD which formed on the four hour chart.

From last week's commentary, I was watching closely for the head and shoulders confirmation. This pattern completed on both the EUR/AUD and the GBP/AUD yesterday with the ensuing price action setup occurring today around midday AEST. Unfortunately day job takes priority. It was good looking setup which paid out roughly 4:1. Over the European session, losses on the GBP/AUD accelerated capping off an almost 200 pips decline.

I have marked out the typical head and shoulders break out target which is measured from the break out point. The distance is typically measured as the highest point of the head to the neckline. Will be watching for an opportunity for an entry on any short term retracement as there is still plenty of room for the price action to run.

Long entry on EUR/JPY on fake out setup off 129.493 level. Entry @ 129.863. Stop @ 129.363. Targeting 131 level.

US Dollar Steams Ahead

Hi traders and welcome to the weekend wrap up. This past week saw some very positive news out of the US and very much shite news out of Europe. A positive NFP print capped off the USD gains with more event risk coming up in the new week. I have added a quick link to the economic calendar over at FxStreet. You can find it on the side bar navigation.

Key levels for the coming week:

Pair	Level(s) to watch	Description	Bias
EUR/USD	1.27953	Closes above key level 1.27953. Upward sloping trend line also a key level. Watch for short opportunity.	Bearish
EUR/JPY	129.738, 129.493	Narrow range in the short term. Look for breakout early this week.	Ranging
EUR/GBP	0.85894	Close above key level. Watch for long opportunity.	Bullish
EUR/AUD	1.4073, 1.42546	Upward sloping trend line held this week. Persisting Aussie weakness, but definitely oversold.	Ranging
EUR/CHF	1.2363, 1.238	Slightly bullish this week. Congestion range coming up. Break of 1.238 to confirm stronger bullish momentum.	Ranging
AUD/USD	0.91634, 0.9, 0.877	Another new low set for the end of the week. Continued bearish trend below 0.91634.	Bearish
AUD/JPY	89.087, 92.95	Weekly close above 91. Turns bias towards testing 93 level.	Bullish
NZD/USD	0.78289, 0.74565	Barely closes above bottom of consolidation range. May break early in the week.	Bearish
AUD/NZD	1.17336, 1.18484	Bullish close this week. May begin correction run this week.	Bearish
AUD/CAD	0.96389, 0.94815	Close above 0.96389 required to confirm possible bullish scenario. Short pin signal, but dangerous due to oversold conditions.	Bearish
USD/CHF	0.95529	Bullish close above 0.95529. Watch for long opportunity this week. Next target, 0.98 area.	Bullish
USD/JPY	99.88, 100.70	Bullish close above 100 level for the week. Look for long opportunity back towards this level.	Bullish
USD/CAD	1.055, 1.065	Confirmed close above 1.055. Watch for long opportunities this week targeting 1.065.	Bullish
XAU/USD	1236.8	Persistent strength in bear trend. Watch for short entry signal.	Bearish
SPX500	1654, 1600	Price action was bullish this week with a firm hold of 1600 level. Scenario is neutral for now.	Neutral
US Oil	103.6	Huge move for oil this week. Testing the upper trend line of long term triangle.	Bullish
GBP/USD	1.51754	Strong bearish momenum. Testing lower bound trend line of symmetrical triangle.	Bearish
GBP/JPY	151.727, 149.434	Pin bar fake out on the weekly chart. Watch for short setup this week.	Ranging
GBP/CAD	1.58770, 1.58	Break of upward sloping trend line. Well into correction move now, targeting 1.55	Bearish
GBP/AUD	1.662, 1.63828	Pin bar at key level; heads and shoulders pattern not yet confirmed. Watch for short opportunities back towards 1.662 level.	Ranging

As always, good luck for the coming week.

Risk off day?

Evening traders and welcome to the US session. We have had a relatively risk adverse day with Yen strength and European woes central themes of the day. USD/JPY has lost the 100 handle. Strongest currency by far today appears to be the GBP, bucking the risk off trend.

EUR/GBP collapsed from a strong resistance level today. Unfortunately, I missed that opportunity. Pin bar formed last night and the move was well underway by the time I woke up this morning.

Chart in focus for me today is the EUR/JPY. Few things of note:

• Price is bound within upward sloping channel in the medium term.
• Significant drop today, breaking the short term uptrend on the H4 chart.
• MVAs starting to turn.

Still keeping a close eye on this one, especially at the 129.5-129.8 area. Will be looking for a sell signal forming in this area in the next 24 hours, targeting the 127.4 area.

The 4th July celebrations US tomorrow, so markets will be relatively quiet. EU interest rate decision on tap and then the NFPs to round out the week. Good luck traders and we'll talk to you again tomorrow.

Itching to trade...

Hi all; sitting here with an itchy trigger finger, but can't doing anything about it. Price action has been frustrating. Following significant levels have been cracked so far:

• 100 level for US/JPY
• New high for US dollar index

Price action, however has been less than definitive. See-sawing movement and unconvincing price action all around (at least from my perspective anyway).

Looks like I'll be on the sidelines again. Many times before I've rushed in on a night like this only to have trades go against me more often than not. To those of you who are finding better opportunities ... good luck!

Range trading order of the day...

Hey traders and welcome to today's commentary. Not much going on today with most pairs in consolidation ranges. Just an update from my weekend wrap up. Failed to notice that there were a couple of heads and shoulders patterns forming in certain pairs. Albeit, the neckline is running with the trend. Will still keep a close eye on these patterns today.