Frustration

Have been extremely busy at work since my last post, and wouldn't you know it, that's when the market decides to move. Missed out on a swag load of opportunities. Call it laziness, call it busy from getting home at God awful hours in the night. Either way I could not capitalize. Instead I chose to make an undisciplined and unplanned trade. Result: 60 pip loss within secs. Awesome way to start the weekend...

Taking a look at my trades in the past year and consistency continues to elude me. Does not look like an issue with the technique, but more with the start stop approach which has plagued my relatively short trading career. That is, narrow periods of concentration across days and weeks where I do well with focus, offset by weeks to months of inactivity and forgetting all the fundamentals. Need a better way to beat myself into shape.

Enough whining, onwards to this week's analysis...

Pair	Level(s) to watch	Description
EUR/USD	1.32, 1.33	Ranging price action between 1.32 and 1.33.
EUR/JPY	129.493, 131.108, 132.738	Ranging prices action between 129.493 and 132.
EUR/GBP	0.86637	Price pushing higer within expanding wedge formation. Moving averages are bullish.
EUR/AUD	1.38603, 1.4415	Aussie dollar continuing to suck across the board. Should be another extended wave up. Watching for long entry opportunity.
EUR/CHF	1.235	Slightly bearish consolidation towards upward sloping trendline support.
EUR/CAD	1.37	Break of key level 1.37. Watch for retracement for long opportunity. Likely to hit 1.43381
AUD/USD	0.877, 0.90406	Sux to be Aussie right now. No end to the pain in sight. Watch for short opportunity. Likely extension into 0.85 area.
AUD/JPY	86, 89, 90	Same assessment as USD counterpart. Looking out for extension into support at 86 level.
NZD/USD	0.78576, 0.8, 0.805	Bullish engulfing bar off mva(20). Close below 0.78576 level. Likely to retest 0.76868 this week.
AUD/NZD	1.16521	1.12 target reached. Looking for price consolidation this week.
AUD/CAD	0.93519, 0.94815	0.93519 level breached. Extension likely. Watch for short opportunity.
USD/CHF	0.92054, 0.92272,	Inverted hammer close to key level. May see beginning of a reversal this week off the upward sloping support line of triangle formation.
USD/JPY	97.5, 99.7	Unable to hold 100 level. Price caught in downward descending channel.
USD/CAD	1.03355, 1.04381	Rebound off 1.025 level and close above 1.03355. Should retest 1.04381.
XAU/USD	1267, 1300, 1321	Weekly pattern still bearish. Daily MVAs bullish with fakey setup off key 1300 level.
SPX500	1709	Another historical high this week. US economy slow down? Bitch please!
US Oil	Discontinued
GBP/USD	1.52491, 1.54	Large pin bar off 1.51 level on the weekly chart. Bullish engulfing candle off the daily. Likely extension to the upside this week.
GBP/JPY	150.68, 151.727	False break of the rising channel this week. Still watching for a move to the down side.
GBP/CAD	1.58770, 1.58, 1.59262	Price consolidating back above the trend line. Needs to close above 1.59262 to signal uptrend coninuation.
GBP/AUD	1.68729	Extremely bullish. Watch for long entry back at 1.68729 support level

Trend map

I'll start today off with an update on yesterday's trade. Trailing stop was knocked out at break even (again!!). Have to be content with these sorts of things 'cuz it happens.

A bit of volatility today. Positive news out of the Euro bloc saw EUR crosses rocket up past resistances, only to lose all those gains by NY session.

Losses seen in EUR/CAD (Doh!) and especially GBP/CAD. Kudos to those who caught both yesterday's inside bar short setup and today's fakey pin bar setup (see pic).

Been a bit odd this week. Price action following press release seemed to align then surprises everyone by whipping back up the opposite way. Technical not aligning to fundamentals - always fun.

Looks like rough markets to navigate for the rest of the week. Some big ticket items on the release docket tomorrow out of the US. Will have to see if they manage to jump start some trends.

As always, good luck in tonight's trading all.

Setup on EUR/CAD

Hello traders and welcome to today's call out. Quick update on yesterday's trade. Momentum was quick to die out with gains quickly retraced. Exited during Asian trading hours. Pairs have now completely reversed.

Current trade is EUR/CAD with the short triggered on release of Canadian retail sales which smashed expectations. However, not much follow through after hitting the first target. Looks like another one to grind out. Stop has been trailed to break even. Headed into the start of the US session on a lightweight 14 pip profit after an initial 30 pip gain.

I have included both the H4 and D1 charts highlighting the technical pattern for the basis of the trade - inverted hammers at resistance trend lines.

As always, good luck out there guys. Will catch you again, tomorrow.

Daily Call Out - Early movers

Welcome to today's daily call out (a new phrase I just decided to coin :)). Have two trade setups: USD/CHF and GBP/CAD.

USD/CHF

Inside bar short setup on the 4 hour chart.

• Entry @0.93827
• Target @0.928
• Stop @0.94194

GBP/USD

Inside bar fake out long entry on the 4 hour chart.

• Entry @1.58293
• Target @1.6
• Stop @0.1.5798

Chop

Hi all. The title of the post aptly describes what I felt were the trading conditions last week. With the exception of Yen crosses towards the end of the week, trend trades were very few and far between. This came as a surprise given the heavy event risks during the week (including the Bernanke testimonials).

The chop was horrible on my trades this week, along with a rogue trade mid week on the USD/JPY cross. Would have been better to stay on the sidelines. I ended up an unhealthy 100 pips worse off.

A light docket for event risks going into the new week. However, as a gambling man I would say "leave it to a quiet event risk week to cop all the big price moves." So I head into this week with cautious optimism for continued volatility (always good for us speculators).

SPX500 continues its upwards march, clocking another record close last week. Gains are being closely tracked by the USDOLLAR index which has traditionally been divergent. What will give first?

For the key levels this week, I have added a couple of new dimensions to the directional bias. Will experiment with this and see whether this boosts the trading accuracy (ratio currently sits at roughly 45/50)

Key Levels

Pair	Level(s) to watch	Description	H4 Bias	D1 Bias	W1 Bias
EUR/USD	1.29924, 1.30758, 1.32	Poised for retest of 1.32. Still mildly bullish.	Bullish	Bullish	Neutral
EUR/JPY	131.108, 133.25	Weekly close above previous high at 131.108. Targeting upper trend line resistance of the channel.	Bullish	Bullish	Bullish
EUR/GBP	0.85898	Retesting key 0.86 level. Pair is looking vulnerable if key support fails to hold.	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
EUR/AUD	1.38603, 1.4415	Ranging price action. May retest 1.44756 high set in late June. Close above here would confirm bullish extension.	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
EUR/CHF	1.235, 1.24	Not much movement for the week. Very slightly bullish.	Neutral	Bullish	Bullish
AUD/USD	0.90406, 0.93043	Strong rejection off support at 0.90406. Watch for long entry opportunity.	Neutral	Bearish	Bearish
AUD/JPY	90, 92.95	Bullish engulfing candle on the weekly. Approaching short term resistance again at 92.95.	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NZD/USD	0.78576, 0.8, 0.805	Confirmed reversal off the weekly inverted hammer. Should see another push to the upside this week.	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
AUD/NZD	1.16521	Bearish extension scenario confirmed. Watch for retracement opportunity to sell. Close above 1.16 required to rever short term outlook back to neutral.	Bearish	Bearish	Bearish
AUD/CAD	0.94815	Close above 0.94815. Semi inverted hammer. May see some gains this week. Still short term bearish.	Bearish	Bearish	Bearish
USD/CHF	0.94385	Consolidation in the past week. 10MA bearish. 20MA flattening. Watch for short opportunity this week.	Bearish	Bearish	Neutral
USD/JPY	96.995, 99.9	Recaptures 100 level. May see retest of 103.7 highs. Watch for long entry this week.	Bullish	Bullish	Bullish
USD/CAD	1.025, 1.0360, 1.04366	Pair looking vulnerable this week. Rejection of 1.04366 level. May see a leg down to 1.025 this week.	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
XAU/USD	1267, 1300, 1321	Price consolidating this week. Close above 1300 required for correction continuation.	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
SPX500	1687	Continued bull run on stocks. Record high breached.	Bullish	Bullish	Bullish
US Oil	103.6, 110	Continued march upwards for oil. 110 per barrel 2012 high within sight. Watching for retracement opportunities.	Bullish	Bullish	Bullish
GBP/USD	1.51707, 1.52813	Close above 1.52 level. Watch for opprotunity to join bullish correction this week.	Bullish	Bullish	Neutral
GBP/JPY	153.8	Price close to testing the upper resistance line of the upward sloping channel.	Bullish	Bullish	Bullish
GBP/CAD	1.58770, 1.58, 1.59262	Price consolidating back above the trend line. Needs to close above 1.59262 to signal uptrend coninuation.	Bullish	Bullish	Neutral
GBP/AUD	1.66242, 1.68729	Price back into consolidation ranges. Testing downward sloping trend resistance.	Bullish	Bearish	Neutral

Weekly wrap up 14/07/2013

Hey traders and welcome to this week's wrap up. An extremely volatile week with the FOMC minutes throwing more confusion into the mix; print more money, don't print more money, who knows what the Fed's thinking anymore. Key break outs from previous week somewhat negated on the back of the past week's event risks.

Aussie dollar weakness continues unabated with weaker unemployment figures weighing down the commodity currency. Even the promise of potential continuation of QE3 could not stop the free fall. AUD/USD however has put in a reverse hammer at key psychological level. Will see what happens this week.

Speaking of which, another big week with GDP and CPI figures on tap - I wonder when the fun will stop...ಠ_ಠ.

Key levels to watch

Pair	Level(s) to watch	Description	Bias
EUR/USD	1.29924, 1.32	Strong close above 1.3 level. Changes the bearish outlook to neutral. Short term bullish bias in place.	Neutral
EUR/JPY	128.795, 131.086, 132.745	Upward trending channel maintained. Likely to retest 1.325 level. First line of resistance at 1.31086.	Ranging
EUR/GBP	0.85898	Consolidation above 0.86. Continue to watch for long opportunity.	Bullish
EUR/AUD	1.39769, 1.4415	False break of head and shoulders pattern; new high set. Short term bullish, but still looking for short opportunity.	Bullish
EUR/CHF	1.2363, 1.238	Close to the downside. False break of 1.238 level. Watch for short opportunity.	Ranging
AUD/USD	0.90435, 0.91634	Extremely oversold; another new low set. Reverse hammer on the weekly chart. Watch for long opportunity.	Bearish
AUD/JPY	89.087, 92.95	Strong rejection of price at 93 level. Looking for a restest of 89.087 support.	Ranging
NZD/USD	0.78289, 0.74565	Reverse hammer on the weekly. May see price consolidating above 0.76868 level.	Ranging
AUD/NZD	1.16521	Bearish close; looking like another extension to the downside. Watching price closely at 1.16521 level	Bearish
AUD/CAD	0.94815	Another bearish weekly close signalling an extended run to the down side. Watching price at 0.94815 level.	Bearish
USD/CHF	0.95132, 0.95529	Price consolidating this week below 0.95 after the previous week's false break. Should see one more leg down in the short term to 0.93 level.	Ranging
USD/JPY	96.995, 99.9	Loss of 100 level. Looking at range between 100 and 97.	Ranging
USD/CAD	1.04177, 1.05524	Loss of 1.055 level. Consolidation below this level for the week.	Ranging
XAU/USD	1321	Stronger bullish close this week. Watching for short opportunity towards 1321 level.	Bearish
SPX500	1686	Continued bull run on stocks. Looks to retest 1686 record high.	Bullish
US Oil	103.6	Break of long term triangle. Watch for long opportunity this week.	Bullish
GBP/USD	1.52, 1.52813	Retracement this week. Watch for short opportunity at 1.52813 level.	Bearish
GBP/JPY	151.727, 149.434	Bearish scenario still valid. Watching for a break to the downside of the current range.	Bearish
GBP/CAD	1.58770, 1.58	Break of upward sloping trend line. Well into correction move now, targeting 1.55. Watching for retracement entry opportunity.	Bearish
GBP/AUD	1.63828, 1.662, 1.68729	Close above 1.662. Head and shoulders pattern faked out. Price back into consolidation ranges.	Ranging

Correction underway?

Hello traders and welcome to this evening's commentary. An interesting day spurred on abysmal UK data. This has seen some interesting action in the Aussie and European crosses. Unfortunately I was unable to take advantage of a great pin bar fake out setup on the GBP/AUD which formed on the four hour chart.

From last week's commentary, I was watching closely for the head and shoulders confirmation. This pattern completed on both the EUR/AUD and the GBP/AUD yesterday with the ensuing price action setup occurring today around midday AEST. Unfortunately day job takes priority. It was good looking setup which paid out roughly 4:1. Over the European session, losses on the GBP/AUD accelerated capping off an almost 200 pips decline.

I have marked out the typical head and shoulders break out target which is measured from the break out point. The distance is typically measured as the highest point of the head to the neckline. Will be watching for an opportunity for an entry on any short term retracement as there is still plenty of room for the price action to run.