Chop

Hi all. The title of the post aptly describes what I felt were the trading conditions last week. With the exception of Yen crosses towards the end of the week, trend trades were very few and far between. This came as a surprise given the heavy event risks during the week (including the Bernanke testimonials).

The chop was horrible on my trades this week, along with a rogue trade mid week on the USD/JPY cross. Would have been better to stay on the sidelines. I ended up an unhealthy 100 pips worse off.

A light docket for event risks going into the new week. However, as a gambling man I would say "leave it to a quiet event risk week to cop all the big price moves." So I head into this week with cautious optimism for continued volatility (always good for us speculators).

SPX500 continues its upwards march, clocking another record close last week. Gains are being closely tracked by the USDOLLAR index which has traditionally been divergent. What will give first?

For the key levels this week, I have added a couple of new dimensions to the directional bias. Will experiment with this and see whether this boosts the trading accuracy (ratio currently sits at roughly 45/50)

Key Levels

Pair	Level(s) to watch	Description	H4 Bias	D1 Bias	W1 Bias
EUR/USD	1.29924, 1.30758, 1.32	Poised for retest of 1.32. Still mildly bullish.	Bullish	Bullish	Neutral
EUR/JPY	131.108, 133.25	Weekly close above previous high at 131.108. Targeting upper trend line resistance of the channel.	Bullish	Bullish	Bullish
EUR/GBP	0.85898	Retesting key 0.86 level. Pair is looking vulnerable if key support fails to hold.	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
EUR/AUD	1.38603, 1.4415	Ranging price action. May retest 1.44756 high set in late June. Close above here would confirm bullish extension.	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
EUR/CHF	1.235, 1.24	Not much movement for the week. Very slightly bullish.	Neutral	Bullish	Bullish
AUD/USD	0.90406, 0.93043	Strong rejection off support at 0.90406. Watch for long entry opportunity.	Neutral	Bearish	Bearish
AUD/JPY	90, 92.95	Bullish engulfing candle on the weekly. Approaching short term resistance again at 92.95.	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NZD/USD	0.78576, 0.8, 0.805	Confirmed reversal off the weekly inverted hammer. Should see another push to the upside this week.	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
AUD/NZD	1.16521	Bearish extension scenario confirmed. Watch for retracement opportunity to sell. Close above 1.16 required to rever short term outlook back to neutral.	Bearish	Bearish	Bearish
AUD/CAD	0.94815	Close above 0.94815. Semi inverted hammer. May see some gains this week. Still short term bearish.	Bearish	Bearish	Bearish
USD/CHF	0.94385	Consolidation in the past week. 10MA bearish. 20MA flattening. Watch for short opportunity this week.	Bearish	Bearish	Neutral
USD/JPY	96.995, 99.9	Recaptures 100 level. May see retest of 103.7 highs. Watch for long entry this week.	Bullish	Bullish	Bullish
USD/CAD	1.025, 1.0360, 1.04366	Pair looking vulnerable this week. Rejection of 1.04366 level. May see a leg down to 1.025 this week.	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
XAU/USD	1267, 1300, 1321	Price consolidating this week. Close above 1300 required for correction continuation.	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
SPX500	1687	Continued bull run on stocks. Record high breached.	Bullish	Bullish	Bullish
US Oil	103.6, 110	Continued march upwards for oil. 110 per barrel 2012 high within sight. Watching for retracement opportunities.	Bullish	Bullish	Bullish
GBP/USD	1.51707, 1.52813	Close above 1.52 level. Watch for opprotunity to join bullish correction this week.	Bullish	Bullish	Neutral
GBP/JPY	153.8	Price close to testing the upper resistance line of the upward sloping channel.	Bullish	Bullish	Bullish
GBP/CAD	1.58770, 1.58, 1.59262	Price consolidating back above the trend line. Needs to close above 1.59262 to signal uptrend coninuation.	Bullish	Bullish	Neutral
GBP/AUD	1.66242, 1.68729	Price back into consolidation ranges. Testing downward sloping trend resistance.	Bullish	Bearish	Neutral