Year 2014

Wow, has it really been all most 6 months since my last post? It has been a while and a short break became a medium break, and then a long break. You know how it is.

In any case, I am back now in the new year (who knows for how long this time) and am looking forward to the trading action for the year.

Have had a very good come back week, pulling together some successful trades to get me back into the groove.

Without further ado, looking at EUR pair this week:

Pair	Level(s) to watch	Description
EUR/USD	1.34, 1.3580	Fakey pattern played out at the 20 MVA. Break of upward slope. Should see the pair target 1.34.
EUR/JPY	141, 142.8	Uptrend streak broken in the previous week. Consolidating last week to the lower side of the range. Looking for bearish continuation into the new week.

Watching for some reversal action this week ...

Hello traders and welcome to the weekly wrap up. Been a busy week. Tapering theme did not help the USD in the past week as weaker data undermined its strength. Looking in the week ahead, several reversal patterns taking shape at key resistance. Fingers crossed that I can capitalize on these this week. With that onto this week's forecast.

Pair	Level(s) to watch	Description
EUR/USD	1.32418, 1.34, 1.37098	Another weekly high set, but unable to close above 1.34. Pin bar fake out pattern. Watch for a short setup in the coming week (contrarian trade).
EUR/JPY	127.957, 129.493, 131.108, 132.738	Bullish week off 130 level. 131.108 is resistance turned support. Should be testing 132.738 this week.
EUR/GBP	0.84, 0.8468, 0.85898	Bullish momentum this week testing the 0.86 level, but unable to close above. Neutral at the moment on this pair. Watch for a break or rejection in the coming week from 0.85898 pivot.
EUR/AUD	1.44475, 1.45996, 1.47668, 1.49934	Inside bars on the daily chart. Slightly bearish on the H4 chart. Daily and weekly trends are still bullish.
EUR/CHF	1.22382, 1.22846, 1.24341	Bulls unable to take hold on this pair. Pair is neutral at the moment, but gut feel is to favour a retest of 1.2434.
EUR/CAD	1.36640, 1.38156, 1.39199, 1.41142	Bullish breakout of 1.38156. Next target target 1.41082. Watch for long entry signal.
AUD/USD	0.88468, 0.90406, 0.93043	No continuation on the break of 0.90406. Neutral on this pair at the moment. Watching for price action signal at 0.90406 pivot.
AUD/JPY	86.396, 89.68, 92.726	Bearish momentum stalled for the moment. Favour a break back above 89.68 if postitive risk appetitie takes hold this week.
NZD/USD	0.74656, 0.76868, 0.78576, 0.80979	NZD belted this week. Convincing close below 0.78576. Outlook is bearish all the way for this one in the upcoming week.
AUD/NZD	1.12639, 1.146	Positive break above 1.146. Watch for long entry opportunity.
AUD/CAD	0.93519, 0.95067, 0.96389	Pin bar off 0.93519. Watch for long entry opportunity this week.
USD/CHF	0.91745, 0.93887	Support at 0.91745 barely holding in the past week. May be an opportunity to play the reversal similar to EUR/USD pair.
USD/JPY	96.995, 98.231, 99.951, 101.522	Strong close above 98.231 and minor break of downward sloping resistance line. Favour continuation of bullish momentum in the coming week.
USD/CAD	1.03355, 1.04381, 1.05552	Bullish week which retested 1.05552. Pin bar reversal play maybe possible.
XAU/USD	1344.08, 1379.1, 1421.9, 1485.3	Bullish above 1344.08 key level. Looking for extension into 1421, then 1485. Watching for long entry opportunity this week.
SPX500	1598.4, 1647.9	Bearish momentum stalled. Neutral on the index at the moment.
GBP/USD	1.54194, 1.55737, 1.57365	Close for the week at key pivot without testing 1.57503. Watch for price action signal around this pivot level.
GBP/JPY	147.584, 151.468, 154.032	Price still in medium term consolidation. Testing the upper bound resistance. Pin bar fake out.
GBP/CAD	1.60415, 1.62029, 1.63891	Price broken above multi year highs. Testing 2011 levels.
GBP/AUD	1.63864, 1.68759, 1.7341	New high set in the past week, but did not close above key 1.7341 level. May see possible reversal this week.

As I mentioned previously, here are some of the short term reversal trades I'm looking at setting up this week:

Wow that was quick...

Just like that, almost three weeks have past since I posted. A weekend at the snow, a few days recovery, daddy duties, and work ... adds up doesn't it? Annnyyy whooooo, I am back and trying to make a living in the currency markets, which incidentally have been very unkind to me as of late. No matter, onwards to a mid week report:

Pair	Level(s) to watch	Description
EUR/USD	1.32418, 1.34, 1.37098	Bullish breakout to the upside. Watching for retracement entry.
EUR/JPY	127.957, 129.493, 131.108, 132.738	Consolidation phase at key levels. Some volatility.
EUR/GBP	0.84, 0.8468, 0.85898	Bearish below 0.85898. Watch for short opportunity.
EUR/AUD	1.38603, 1.44475, 1.49934	Bullish momentum continuing. Price is likely to retest 1.5 level. Bullish above 1.44475.
EUR/CHF	1.22845, 1.24341	Price consolidation above 1.22845. Neutral outlook at the moment.
EUR/CAD	1.36640, 1.38156, 1.39199	Bullish breakout price action. Next target target 1.41082.
AUD/USD	0.88468, 0.90406, 0.93043	Price consolidating above 0.90406. Break of this level will target low of 0.88468
AUD/JPY	86.396, 89.68	Consolidation below 89.68 level. Outlook continues to favour bears.
NZD/USD	0.76868, 0.78576, 0.80979	Sideways consolidation. Next support at 0.78576.
AUD/NZD	1.12639, 1.146	Sideways consolidation. Targeting resistance at 1.146
AUD/CAD	0.93519, 0.94869, 0.96389	Price consolidating at 0.93519 key level. May see short term bounce to 0.94869, then 0.96389.
USD/CHF	0.91745, 0.93887	Price curently at bottom of consolidation range. Break below 0.91745 signals extension to 0.9 level.
USD/JPY	96.995, 98.231	Price consolidating just above 97 level. Watch for short opportunity.
USD/CAD	1.03355, 1.04381	Price testing resistance. Needs to break above 1.04381 for continuation.
XAU/USD	1344.08, 1421.9, 1485.3	Bullish above 1344.08 key level. Looking for extension into 1421, then 1485.
SPX500	1598.4, 1647.9	Daily close below 50MVA. Index targeting 1598.4 area.
GBP/USD	1.55737, 1.57365	Targeting 1.57365 area. Look to play range between upper and lower bound.
GBP/JPY	147.584, 151.468, 153.659	Price still in medium term consolidation. Testing the upper bound resistance.
GBP/CAD	1.60415, 1.62029, 1.63891	Price broken above multi year highs. Testing 2011 levels.
GBP/AUD	1.63864, 1.68759, 1.7341	Testing multi year highs. Failure at resistance may present short opportunity.

Frustration

Have been extremely busy at work since my last post, and wouldn't you know it, that's when the market decides to move. Missed out on a swag load of opportunities. Call it laziness, call it busy from getting home at God awful hours in the night. Either way I could not capitalize. Instead I chose to make an undisciplined and unplanned trade. Result: 60 pip loss within secs. Awesome way to start the weekend...

Taking a look at my trades in the past year and consistency continues to elude me. Does not look like an issue with the technique, but more with the start stop approach which has plagued my relatively short trading career. That is, narrow periods of concentration across days and weeks where I do well with focus, offset by weeks to months of inactivity and forgetting all the fundamentals. Need a better way to beat myself into shape.

Enough whining, onwards to this week's analysis...

Pair	Level(s) to watch	Description
EUR/USD	1.32, 1.33	Ranging price action between 1.32 and 1.33.
EUR/JPY	129.493, 131.108, 132.738	Ranging prices action between 129.493 and 132.
EUR/GBP	0.86637	Price pushing higer within expanding wedge formation. Moving averages are bullish.
EUR/AUD	1.38603, 1.4415	Aussie dollar continuing to suck across the board. Should be another extended wave up. Watching for long entry opportunity.
EUR/CHF	1.235	Slightly bearish consolidation towards upward sloping trendline support.
EUR/CAD	1.37	Break of key level 1.37. Watch for retracement for long opportunity. Likely to hit 1.43381
AUD/USD	0.877, 0.90406	Sux to be Aussie right now. No end to the pain in sight. Watch for short opportunity. Likely extension into 0.85 area.
AUD/JPY	86, 89, 90	Same assessment as USD counterpart. Looking out for extension into support at 86 level.
NZD/USD	0.78576, 0.8, 0.805	Bullish engulfing bar off mva(20). Close below 0.78576 level. Likely to retest 0.76868 this week.
AUD/NZD	1.16521	1.12 target reached. Looking for price consolidation this week.
AUD/CAD	0.93519, 0.94815	0.93519 level breached. Extension likely. Watch for short opportunity.
USD/CHF	0.92054, 0.92272,	Inverted hammer close to key level. May see beginning of a reversal this week off the upward sloping support line of triangle formation.
USD/JPY	97.5, 99.7	Unable to hold 100 level. Price caught in downward descending channel.
USD/CAD	1.03355, 1.04381	Rebound off 1.025 level and close above 1.03355. Should retest 1.04381.
XAU/USD	1267, 1300, 1321	Weekly pattern still bearish. Daily MVAs bullish with fakey setup off key 1300 level.
SPX500	1709	Another historical high this week. US economy slow down? Bitch please!
US Oil	Discontinued
GBP/USD	1.52491, 1.54	Large pin bar off 1.51 level on the weekly chart. Bullish engulfing candle off the daily. Likely extension to the upside this week.
GBP/JPY	150.68, 151.727	False break of the rising channel this week. Still watching for a move to the down side.
GBP/CAD	1.58770, 1.58, 1.59262	Price consolidating back above the trend line. Needs to close above 1.59262 to signal uptrend coninuation.
GBP/AUD	1.68729	Extremely bullish. Watch for long entry back at 1.68729 support level

Trend map

I'll start today off with an update on yesterday's trade. Trailing stop was knocked out at break even (again!!). Have to be content with these sorts of things 'cuz it happens.

A bit of volatility today. Positive news out of the Euro bloc saw EUR crosses rocket up past resistances, only to lose all those gains by NY session.

Losses seen in EUR/CAD (Doh!) and especially GBP/CAD. Kudos to those who caught both yesterday's inside bar short setup and today's fakey pin bar setup (see pic).

Been a bit odd this week. Price action following press release seemed to align then surprises everyone by whipping back up the opposite way. Technical not aligning to fundamentals - always fun.

Looks like rough markets to navigate for the rest of the week. Some big ticket items on the release docket tomorrow out of the US. Will have to see if they manage to jump start some trends.

As always, good luck in tonight's trading all.

Setup on EUR/CAD

Hello traders and welcome to today's call out. Quick update on yesterday's trade. Momentum was quick to die out with gains quickly retraced. Exited during Asian trading hours. Pairs have now completely reversed.

Current trade is EUR/CAD with the short triggered on release of Canadian retail sales which smashed expectations. However, not much follow through after hitting the first target. Looks like another one to grind out. Stop has been trailed to break even. Headed into the start of the US session on a lightweight 14 pip profit after an initial 30 pip gain.

I have included both the H4 and D1 charts highlighting the technical pattern for the basis of the trade - inverted hammers at resistance trend lines.

As always, good luck out there guys. Will catch you again, tomorrow.

Daily Call Out - Early movers

Welcome to today's daily call out (a new phrase I just decided to coin :)). Have two trade setups: USD/CHF and GBP/CAD.

USD/CHF

Inside bar short setup on the 4 hour chart.

• Entry @0.93827
• Target @0.928
• Stop @0.94194

GBP/USD

Inside bar fake out long entry on the 4 hour chart.

• Entry @1.58293
• Target @1.6
• Stop @0.1.5798