Thursday, 17 November 2011
Disappointed
Hey traders, how are we all today? I have had a long week, and unfortunately not a very happy one. On a bit of a bad run at the moment with 4 bad trades on the trot. Missed out some very nice trades during the week. Can probably put it all down to not planning ahead and setting up my trades which is still an incredibly weak point for me at the moment. Getting grinded to death with choppy, small ranges. Hopefully you have done better than me. I may take a break for the remainder of the week ...
Saturday, 12 November 2011
Weekly Update 14/11/2011
Welcome to the weekend update for the upcoming trading week. Going with the "picture speaks a thousand words" credo and keeping it short. 5 charts in focus this week: AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/CAD, and Gold.
Heavy event risk this week with spades of GDP and CPI figures coming out. These will provide an indication of how global economy is fairing. Good luck this week!
Friday, 11 November 2011
Trade Idea Wrap Up
Welcome traders to another daily post. First, a quick wrap up of yesterday's trade. It was looking fantastic. Bearish pressure was strong and I had moved into a 50 pip profit by the third hour of my trade ... GREAT! I trailed the stop loss to break even. In the next 15 mins, price proceeded to spike back up straight through my entry and then some ... 3 hours gone in 15 mins. It then proceeded to fall like a rock, all the way down to a low of 1.6187, 30 pips away from my soft target and what would have been a 120 pip profit. Live and learn I guess ... sh#%t happens. Not really looking to trade today, so will summarise the week in tomorrow's weekend update; see ya ; )
Thursday, 10 November 2011
Trade Idea
Yo, super risk takers! Welcome to another post of FX trading corner. GBP/CAD has been a pair extensively followed by one of the DailyFX currency strategists John Kicklighter. Going through the charts today, I spotted the formation of a fakey pin on the 4 hourly chart. The 5 wave structure looked complete with the temporary top and there was a potential for a retest of the recent support area at 1.615. The pair looks attractive since there is a potential for it to sink back into the larger daily range. If this were the case, there is the opportunity for some serious pips to be made.
I took the short early at 1.6305 with a stop set at 1.6358. Initial target at 1.6224 area. Things got a bit hairy when it made a daily high at 1.6331. Price has since retraced to the 1.627 area. Looking for the Bank of England interest rate decision to generate some volatility and follow through on this one. Good luck trading again tonight people and keep those stops tight!
Wednesday, 9 November 2011
Finally Some Action
Hey traders, how are we all? Finally getting some movement in the markets today. Sort of kicking myself as I missed a very nice trade setup on the GBP/USD. We had price action consolidation into a pin/inside bar setup at the 1.61 psychological level. At European market open, we saw an immediate 100 pip drop.
Will need to wait - the part I hate the most - for a retracement to yield an attractive entry point again.
Aussie dollar has also exhibited a triangle pattern breakout for this move and I'll be watching for a retracement into the support area at 1.028 and see if a short entry opportunity presents itself.
Will need to wait - the part I hate the most - for a retracement to yield an attractive entry point again.
Aussie dollar has also exhibited a triangle pattern breakout for this move and I'll be watching for a retracement into the support area at 1.028 and see if a short entry opportunity presents itself.
Tuesday, 8 November 2011
Taking Stock
Good evening risk takers! Another grinding day and another post to go with it. Lets kick it off with a recap of yesterday's trade.
So here's what happened. The trade initially got me into a reasonable 30 pips profit, but then ran out of steam almost immediately. It put one of those rather ugly, ball tearing retracements that you hate to be on the wrong side of. It formed and hourly close above the short term resistance level around 1.066. Given this, I decided to exit and take the 25 pip loss rather than the full 50 I was risking given the recent market volatility.
Price action ranged throughout the asian session. About an hour ago, it looked like another neat setup had formed on the one hour, so I took a second bite at the cherry. Result? Another face ripping rally on the back of no news. AWWWEESSOOOMMEEE ... not. This took me out with a 21 pip loss which leaves me down 46 pips for the week.
The setup was valid, and it was a nice risk to reward ratio. In the end, that's the way it is with the market when it doesn't work out; This is where prudent risk management is your saving grace.
The interim has flipped to the upside. A retest of 1.0665 area made yield a short term long entry. Medium term, still looking for the bear run continuation. May take a break for the next day or so and see how things pan out.
Good luck again to all those who will be braving the FX seas in the American session!
So here's what happened. The trade initially got me into a reasonable 30 pips profit, but then ran out of steam almost immediately. It put one of those rather ugly, ball tearing retracements that you hate to be on the wrong side of. It formed and hourly close above the short term resistance level around 1.066. Given this, I decided to exit and take the 25 pip loss rather than the full 50 I was risking given the recent market volatility.
Price action ranged throughout the asian session. About an hour ago, it looked like another neat setup had formed on the one hour, so I took a second bite at the cherry. Result? Another face ripping rally on the back of no news. AWWWEESSOOOMMEEE ... not. This took me out with a 21 pip loss which leaves me down 46 pips for the week.
The interim has flipped to the upside. A retest of 1.0665 area made yield a short term long entry. Medium term, still looking for the bear run continuation. May take a break for the next day or so and see how things pan out.
Good luck again to all those who will be braving the FX seas in the American session!
Monday, 7 November 2011
New week
Hey traders, how are we all today? It's currently 1:12 AM AEST and I have just setup a trade in the GBP/USD. Price action has been whipsawing since the start of the European session, jumping from one headline to the next.
However, like Homer Simpson puts it, this is "crisitunity"; as in oppportunity in the midst of crisis ; ).
GBP/USD
We can see strong resistance at the 1.064 level where price has not managed to close above of since Nov 4. Recent price action saw a fake out, followed by a nice pin bar tail. Ideal entry for short which I have setup @ 1.063 area with initial target of neckline at 1.59. However, I am looking for that break of the head and shoulders pattern to carry the pair into the 1.57 area.
As I am typing this, the trade has just been executed. We shall see how I go ...
However, like Homer Simpson puts it, this is "crisitunity"; as in oppportunity in the midst of crisis ; ).
GBP/USD
We can see strong resistance at the 1.064 level where price has not managed to close above of since Nov 4. Recent price action saw a fake out, followed by a nice pin bar tail. Ideal entry for short which I have setup @ 1.063 area with initial target of neckline at 1.59. However, I am looking for that break of the head and shoulders pattern to carry the pair into the 1.57 area.
As I am typing this, the trade has just been executed. We shall see how I go ...
Friday, 4 November 2011
Aftermath ...
Soooo ... what did we have?
1. NFP added 80,000 jobs. 15,000 less than forecast
2. Unemployment rate improved by 0.1%
In the lead up to the release, we started seeing some choppiness in the price action. No doubt traders placing their bets early!
Post announcement we witnessed a nasty 15 min whipsaw where price oscillated in an approx. 60 pip range
I jumped in a little early myself at 1.3853 (top of resistance) and set a stop of 1.3867 as it was looking like a fake out. Price made a nice spike to 1.38675! KNOCKED OUT BY 0.0005 WTF! Serves me right for not waiting for the confirmation of close below resistance (and setting a stingy stop loss when it was actually more ideal to set at the 1.387 level). On candle close, I made another short entry at 1.3835, this time with a stop level at 1.387. I just closed out the trade at 1.3727. Decent 108 pip profit. Could have been a bit more greedy, but I had already gotten more than a 3:1 payback so ok with that.
Now before crying "gambler!" There was method to this madness as before the trade, I had checked out price action on the H1 and H4 charts. H1 had already formed a 'fakey' price action setup, although the tail on the 15min chart was what sort of sealed the deal. H4 was also in the midst of forming a long tail fakey as a result of this. On top of this, I am trading in the direction of the overall trend. These points of confluence gave me confidence to take a more aggressive entry.
1. NFP added 80,000 jobs. 15,000 less than forecast
2. Unemployment rate improved by 0.1%
In the lead up to the release, we started seeing some choppiness in the price action. No doubt traders placing their bets early!
Post announcement we witnessed a nasty 15 min whipsaw where price oscillated in an approx. 60 pip range
Now before crying "gambler!" There was method to this madness as before the trade, I had checked out price action on the H1 and H4 charts. H1 had already formed a 'fakey' price action setup, although the tail on the 15min chart was what sort of sealed the deal. H4 was also in the midst of forming a long tail fakey as a result of this. On top of this, I am trading in the direction of the overall trend. These points of confluence gave me confidence to take a more aggressive entry.
Waiting ...
Good evening traders. Sitting here nervously awaiting the non farm payroll (NFP) print. Market has been wound quite tight with narrow ranges all day. What this means is, when NFP comes out, all hell is gonna break loose - HOORAY!
Generally speaking, a positive print is suppose to be risk positive whereas a negative print is supose to be risk negative. However, perversely, a positive print may be interpreted as "no QE3" by the market, while a negative print means "turn on the printing presses!!" with the former potentially having a bullish effect on the USD and the latter having a negative effect.
Have a few strategies ready to go once the die is cast and we'll see what that fall out is like going into the weekend. Get ready for a bumpy ride!
Generally speaking, a positive print is suppose to be risk positive whereas a negative print is supose to be risk negative. However, perversely, a positive print may be interpreted as "no QE3" by the market, while a negative print means "turn on the printing presses!!" with the former potentially having a bullish effect on the USD and the latter having a negative effect.
Have a few strategies ready to go once the die is cast and we'll see what that fall out is like going into the weekend. Get ready for a bumpy ride!
Thursday, 3 November 2011
TGIF!
Hello traders and welcome to the wrap up post for the week. Again, we have seen a volatile week. The current fundamental landscape can be summed up as follows:
1. Papa G backed off from the referendum and has effectively handed in his resignation
2. G20 summit in focus and the details of the bailout plan to be finalized.
3. ECB has dropped interest rates by 25bps
4. RBA has dropped interest rates by 25bps
5. FOMC and ECB has indicated economic headwinds going into the final quarter of the year. Monetary easing appears to be the dominant stance.
6. Non-farm payroll print this evening
Short term, headlines and activity appear to support further relief rallies for risk assets. Key event risk tonight is NFP stat. A better than expected print will ensure we get another leg up in risk assets, whereas a worst than expected print may cause some bullish demand for US dollar.
AUD/USD
The Ozzie rocketed up on monetary easing measures and the news out of Greece. Looks to be targeting critical level at 1.500. Still looking for short position opportunities as sentiment is still quite battered and economic fundamental outlook is uncertain. This week's low PMI print out of China suggests a slowdown in Chinese economy.
If entered, will be looking at a first target of the downward sloping neckline which had a failed breakout of the head and shoulders pattern earlier in the week.
Gold
Tracking higher on the back of uncertainty. Nice break of 1750 level. Will look to buy on dips on this one as the wave count suggests either a 5th wave leg up or a sub 3rd wave leg up. Intraday break of 1720 would suggest a target of heavy support zone at 1700. Only a comprehensive break of this area would flip back to bearish scenario.
Key bullish drivers for gold is risk aversion. From what I can see, general inflationary/economic driven risk aversion pushes it up. However, if liquidity risk aversion is at the forefront, then this drives it down. Expect to see a hammering in this pair if Europe blows up, otherwise should be quite well supported.
1. Papa G backed off from the referendum and has effectively handed in his resignation
2. G20 summit in focus and the details of the bailout plan to be finalized.
3. ECB has dropped interest rates by 25bps
4. RBA has dropped interest rates by 25bps
5. FOMC and ECB has indicated economic headwinds going into the final quarter of the year. Monetary easing appears to be the dominant stance.
6. Non-farm payroll print this evening
Short term, headlines and activity appear to support further relief rallies for risk assets. Key event risk tonight is NFP stat. A better than expected print will ensure we get another leg up in risk assets, whereas a worst than expected print may cause some bullish demand for US dollar.
AUD/USD
The Ozzie rocketed up on monetary easing measures and the news out of Greece. Looks to be targeting critical level at 1.500. Still looking for short position opportunities as sentiment is still quite battered and economic fundamental outlook is uncertain. This week's low PMI print out of China suggests a slowdown in Chinese economy.
If entered, will be looking at a first target of the downward sloping neckline which had a failed breakout of the head and shoulders pattern earlier in the week.
Gold
Tracking higher on the back of uncertainty. Nice break of 1750 level. Will look to buy on dips on this one as the wave count suggests either a 5th wave leg up or a sub 3rd wave leg up. Intraday break of 1720 would suggest a target of heavy support zone at 1700. Only a comprehensive break of this area would flip back to bearish scenario.
Key bullish drivers for gold is risk aversion. From what I can see, general inflationary/economic driven risk aversion pushes it up. However, if liquidity risk aversion is at the forefront, then this drives it down. Expect to see a hammering in this pair if Europe blows up, otherwise should be quite well supported.
Papa G is so Awesome!
Sarcastic post title to kick things off!
Hello traders, how y'all doing today? It's been another few days since I posted, but there is very good reason for that!
I prepared a big weekend analysis, all ready to go, but then had my internet usage capped - HOORAY! At a snail's pace of 28.6kbps, there was no way I would be able to post. By the time the connection usage was reset on Tuesday morning, a few of the things I wanted to post about had already been rendered moot. As I always look to the future, I decided not to post the analysis which at that point was already history.
Instead, I'll fill you in on two setups that I traded in the past 24 hours.
EUR/AUD
This pair was starting to look good from a reversal perspective.
1. On the daily chart, it had cleared major resistance.
2. It had completed the wave 1 move.
3. A nice symmetrical triangle (ABCDE) suggesting a continuation scenario.
4. 1.325 offered some decent support on the 15 minute chart
I ended up entering a long on the break of 1.3265 with a fairly tight stop set at 1.3235. As you can see from the rest of the graph, the first break of the triangle where I entered was a fake out, the next attempt after a small retracement was a more decent effort, but also ended up being a fake out. Ultimately the stop got knocked out and price action retraced to the 1.32 level.
Immediately after, price rocketed up and topped out at 1.33856 - PAINFUL.
Point of consideration: The triangle was actually a wave 'B' correctional wave from Elliott wave theory. My mind must have been elsewhere, as Elliott wave theorists should all know that the correction completes at the end of wave 'C' which is suppose to break past wave 'B'.
If I wasn't such a 'nut', the correct course of action was to wait for a close back above 1.322 and confirmation that the level now holds as support, then enter the long. This would have resulted in a very health 160 pip profit.
GBP/USD
Unfazed, I kept an eye out for opportunities going into the American session with the FOMC statement and Bernanke's press conference on tap. I had prepared my strategy! GBP/USD was starting to consolidate into a very well-defined head and shoulders pattern.
The event risk was sure to get price action moving. So, I target a clear resistance level in anticipation of a 'right shoulder' top. At the point of US market open, the hanging man candle has almost formed, but I actually jumped the gun and entered at 1.600. The idea is you wait for the candle to finish forming and set your trade up.
In any case, by US market close I was 60 pips in profit. During the Asian session, price further destructed and eventually reached, and broke the neckline of the pattern. Bring out the party hats right?? Wrong! The bearish candle break rejected. Then the second attempt to break turned into a bullish pin bar rejection at the 100MA level. At this point, this suggested that there would be a mild pull back. Given the volatile nature of the market, I chose to book the 120 pip profit I had at the point. Then what happened?
As you can see going into the European session, the price stupidly reversed like a rocket, charging straigh past the entry price. What happen to the bull taking the stairs and the bear going out the window?? Fundamentally, nothing had changed, but such is the nature of the market. I shall be watching the ECB conference closely tonight with the new incoming EURO president Mario Draghi. No doubt he'll be tested by the press gallery for comments regarding the height of Greece government's insanity. We will see if any opportunity presents itself for a fresh short.
Good luck tonight all!
Hello traders, how y'all doing today? It's been another few days since I posted, but there is very good reason for that!
I prepared a big weekend analysis, all ready to go, but then had my internet usage capped - HOORAY! At a snail's pace of 28.6kbps, there was no way I would be able to post. By the time the connection usage was reset on Tuesday morning, a few of the things I wanted to post about had already been rendered moot. As I always look to the future, I decided not to post the analysis which at that point was already history.
Instead, I'll fill you in on two setups that I traded in the past 24 hours.
EUR/AUD
This pair was starting to look good from a reversal perspective.
1. On the daily chart, it had cleared major resistance.
2. It had completed the wave 1 move.
3. A nice symmetrical triangle (ABCDE) suggesting a continuation scenario.
4. 1.325 offered some decent support on the 15 minute chart
I ended up entering a long on the break of 1.3265 with a fairly tight stop set at 1.3235. As you can see from the rest of the graph, the first break of the triangle where I entered was a fake out, the next attempt after a small retracement was a more decent effort, but also ended up being a fake out. Ultimately the stop got knocked out and price action retraced to the 1.32 level.
Immediately after, price rocketed up and topped out at 1.33856 - PAINFUL.
Point of consideration: The triangle was actually a wave 'B' correctional wave from Elliott wave theory. My mind must have been elsewhere, as Elliott wave theorists should all know that the correction completes at the end of wave 'C' which is suppose to break past wave 'B'.
If I wasn't such a 'nut', the correct course of action was to wait for a close back above 1.322 and confirmation that the level now holds as support, then enter the long. This would have resulted in a very health 160 pip profit.
GBP/USD
Unfazed, I kept an eye out for opportunities going into the American session with the FOMC statement and Bernanke's press conference on tap. I had prepared my strategy! GBP/USD was starting to consolidate into a very well-defined head and shoulders pattern.
The event risk was sure to get price action moving. So, I target a clear resistance level in anticipation of a 'right shoulder' top. At the point of US market open, the hanging man candle has almost formed, but I actually jumped the gun and entered at 1.600. The idea is you wait for the candle to finish forming and set your trade up.
In any case, by US market close I was 60 pips in profit. During the Asian session, price further destructed and eventually reached, and broke the neckline of the pattern. Bring out the party hats right?? Wrong! The bearish candle break rejected. Then the second attempt to break turned into a bullish pin bar rejection at the 100MA level. At this point, this suggested that there would be a mild pull back. Given the volatile nature of the market, I chose to book the 120 pip profit I had at the point. Then what happened?
As you can see going into the European session, the price stupidly reversed like a rocket, charging straigh past the entry price. What happen to the bull taking the stairs and the bear going out the window?? Fundamentally, nothing had changed, but such is the nature of the market. I shall be watching the ECB conference closely tonight with the new incoming EURO president Mario Draghi. No doubt he'll be tested by the press gallery for comments regarding the height of Greece government's insanity. We will see if any opportunity presents itself for a fresh short.
Good luck tonight all!
Friday, 28 October 2011
Update ...
Hello traders. Sorry about the absence during the week. My daytime job has been a bit hectic and I haven't had a chance to post any new updates.
For this week, my winnings and losses balanced out and my account was basically unchanged. The short term 'short' setup on the EUR/USD from my last post did eventuate on a 1 hour chart, but (surprise, surprise) I didn't take the trade. This cost me a quick 90 pip profit.
Ultimately, the EUR did continue its climb afterward.
This highlights a continued weakness in my trading which is the lack of discipline to setup the trade and stick with it for better or worse, coupled with a bad habit of over leverage. I also stopped blogging which meant I didn't have the advantage of having my thoughts on paper for analysis.
Let this be a warning to all would be traders. Have your strategy and stick to it - be confident of it. In addition, don't stop diarising your trades and analysis. It's a very important way of continually improving through self review.
Keep an eye out, I will be putting in a weekend update on all the trading pairs I am interested in.
For this week, my winnings and losses balanced out and my account was basically unchanged. The short term 'short' setup on the EUR/USD from my last post did eventuate on a 1 hour chart, but (surprise, surprise) I didn't take the trade. This cost me a quick 90 pip profit.
Ultimately, the EUR did continue its climb afterward.
This highlights a continued weakness in my trading which is the lack of discipline to setup the trade and stick with it for better or worse, coupled with a bad habit of over leverage. I also stopped blogging which meant I didn't have the advantage of having my thoughts on paper for analysis.
Let this be a warning to all would be traders. Have your strategy and stick to it - be confident of it. In addition, don't stop diarising your trades and analysis. It's a very important way of continually improving through self review.
Keep an eye out, I will be putting in a weekend update on all the trading pairs I am interested in.
Wednesday, 26 October 2011
Trade Idea 26/10/2011
EUR/USD
Hello traders, and welcome again to my blog spot. An update on yesterday's trade. Initial momentum carried me into a 30 pip profit. However, a fake out formation on the inside bar setup started to form close to the first hour of the trade.
To protect the position given the amount of volatility, I moved my stop to cost. This was ultimately stopped out, and what ensued was a whole day's worth of choppy trading across the remaining hours of the American session.
EU summit clearly in focus today with the price action little moved. Risk aversion is starting to creep onto the scene with other risk pairs off weekly highs and Gold spiking above 1700 level.
At this point, I am now considering a bearish position for Euro. However, I am notorious for taking the wrong side of these sorts of trades. Looking at the chart, there is potential to break out to either side.
Will look for a short setup in any case and confluence between 1 hour and 4 hour charts. Open profit target with an initial soft target in the 1.3820 area.
Good luck everyone.
Hello traders, and welcome again to my blog spot. An update on yesterday's trade. Initial momentum carried me into a 30 pip profit. However, a fake out formation on the inside bar setup started to form close to the first hour of the trade.
To protect the position given the amount of volatility, I moved my stop to cost. This was ultimately stopped out, and what ensued was a whole day's worth of choppy trading across the remaining hours of the American session.
EU summit clearly in focus today with the price action little moved. Risk aversion is starting to creep onto the scene with other risk pairs off weekly highs and Gold spiking above 1700 level.
At this point, I am now considering a bearish position for Euro. However, I am notorious for taking the wrong side of these sorts of trades. Looking at the chart, there is potential to break out to either side.
Will look for a short setup in any case and confluence between 1 hour and 4 hour charts. Open profit target with an initial soft target in the 1.3820 area.
Good luck everyone.
Tuesday, 25 October 2011
Trade Idea 25/10/2011
Hey everyone. Hope we all had a nice start to the trading week. Having a look at our assessment of the AUD/USD, price did in fact break the triangle pattern we were talking about and is now tracking higher. Will be keeping a close eye on a potential end to the 5th wave to enter a short position.
In focus today is a EUR/USD trade I decided to take. This is a high risk trade given that there is significant event risk coming up in the form of the deadline for the EU summit. Based on this fundamental event risk, price could move either way.
However, for the short term, I have gone with a purely technical trade. These are the main points of confluence:
- Triangle pattern completion and breakout suggesting a continuation
- 1 hr inside bar, pin bar setup off of the 10 MA and 20 MA
- Upward sloping trendline dynamic support
- 4 hr doji off the 10 MVA
Note strong resistance line at 1.3936 level. Given tightening to the upper range, expecting a break to the upside. Entry @ 1.3921 which was perhaps a little early. Stop @ 1.3872 and a target @ 1.4050, giving a risk to reward ratio of 1:2.5.
We shall see how this plays out over the European and American sessions. Wish me luck : ).
Friday, 21 October 2011
Trade Idea 22/10/2011
AUD/USD
Good morning traders. It is Saturday 22/10 11:03 AM (AEST). Just taking a quick look over what has transpired over the European and American sessions last night.
We saw the completion of our triangle pattern which has now witnessed the break out to the upside as we had discussed in the previous post.
Zooming out onto the daily chart, we can also see a strong bullish candle close above the downward channel of the AUD/USD and the 100 day MA.
Going into the new week, with the EU summit clearly still in focus, we will watch for a retest of former resistance levels in the 1.0265/75 area. If we get a bullish price action signal, then we will look at taking a long position and see how far this 5th wave leg can take us.
However, note heavy resistance zone in the 1.0390/1.0435 area which is also where the 200 day MA is closely guarding.
Good morning traders. It is Saturday 22/10 11:03 AM (AEST). Just taking a quick look over what has transpired over the European and American sessions last night.
We saw the completion of our triangle pattern which has now witnessed the break out to the upside as we had discussed in the previous post.
Zooming out onto the daily chart, we can also see a strong bullish candle close above the downward channel of the AUD/USD and the 100 day MA.
Going into the new week, with the EU summit clearly still in focus, we will watch for a retest of former resistance levels in the 1.0265/75 area. If we get a bullish price action signal, then we will look at taking a long position and see how far this 5th wave leg can take us.
However, note heavy resistance zone in the 1.0390/1.0435 area which is also where the 200 day MA is closely guarding.
Thursday, 20 October 2011
Trade Idea 21/10/2011
AUD/USD
All right, my first analysis post. Going through the charts this morning, most of the pairs I normally check out are all in similar consolidation patterns.
Given the amount of volatility and the influence risk sentiment has had in dictating price action over the past week, I have chosen one of the more risk sensitive pairs for today's post.
Taking a closer look at the 4 hour chart, there is a completed 5 wave triangle pattern with a strong support level @ 1.0160/65.
Zooming out I have suggested the following Elliott wave count which points to a higher likelihood of a bullish breakout from the consolidation area.
This is also inline with the current strong bullish uptrend. Looking for another wave 5 up to complete the wave A correction before beginning a B wave leg down.
Will watch for:
I think the biggest event risk item just about everyone (who doesn't live under a rock) is watching for is the EU summit over the weekend. Whether decisive action can be taken to stem the systemic risks in the Euro region remains to be seen which will drive price action in the following week.
All right, my first analysis post. Going through the charts this morning, most of the pairs I normally check out are all in similar consolidation patterns.
Given the amount of volatility and the influence risk sentiment has had in dictating price action over the past week, I have chosen one of the more risk sensitive pairs for today's post.
Taking a closer look at the 4 hour chart, there is a completed 5 wave triangle pattern with a strong support level @ 1.0160/65.
Zooming out I have suggested the following Elliott wave count which points to a higher likelihood of a bullish breakout from the consolidation area.
This is also inline with the current strong bullish uptrend. Looking for another wave 5 up to complete the wave A correction before beginning a B wave leg down.
Will watch for:
- Bullish price action setup at the 1.0160/65 support area or
- If a breakout occurs, a price action setup based on a retest of former resistance.
I think the biggest event risk item just about everyone (who doesn't live under a rock) is watching for is the EU summit over the weekend. Whether decisive action can be taken to stem the systemic risks in the Euro region remains to be seen which will drive price action in the following week.
It begins ... !
Hi All,
I decided to start a blog to chronicle my success/failure at being a forex market trader. I do this in the hope that it will actually improve my trading.
Not sure if this will help anyone else who reads this, but nonetheless I hope it adds value.
I just wanted to give a holler out to Nial Fuller from Learn To Trade The Market as his website by far has taught me the most about trading using price action. I highly recommend everyone who has an interest in this area to visit his site www.learntotradethemarket.com.
Good luck to all of you who have chosen fx market as their calling to make their millions.
I decided to start a blog to chronicle my success/failure at being a forex market trader. I do this in the hope that it will actually improve my trading.
Not sure if this will help anyone else who reads this, but nonetheless I hope it adds value.
I just wanted to give a holler out to Nial Fuller from Learn To Trade The Market as his website by far has taught me the most about trading using price action. I highly recommend everyone who has an interest in this area to visit his site www.learntotradethemarket.com.
Good luck to all of you who have chosen fx market as their calling to make their millions.
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