Weekly update 29/06/2013

Hello traders and welcome to the weekly recap for the week ending 29/06/2013. Quick update on my trade on Friday. Order was stopped out on the back of Aussie dollar weakeness as the US dollar continued to surge on the back QE tapering speculation.

Heading into a week full of event risks to start the new financial year with the following data on tap:

Mon	EUR	CPI
TUE	AUD	RBA interest rate decision
THU	GBP	BOE interest rate decision
THU	EUR	EUR interest rate decision and monetary statement
FRI	USD	The almighty non farm payrolls pring (NFP)

Key levels for the coming week:

Pair	Level(s)	Description	Bias
EUR/USD	1.3 - 1.31	Potential short entry on reverse pin bar fakeout. Bullish above 1.31	Bearish
EUR/JPY	129.483, 127, 125.162	Barely closed above the downward sloping trend line starting from May top. Outlook neutral for the moment.	Neutral
EUR/GBP	0.85894, 0.847, 0.84	Price rejected from key level (pin bar formation). Will watch for short trade opportunity. Bullish above 0.8589	Neutral
EUR/AUD	1.4396, 1.41681, 1.39769	Aussie weakness persisting. Price may be targeting 1.4396 retest this week.	Bullish
AUD/USD	0.93864, 0.9, 0.877	Fresh multi-year low. Targeting 0.9 psychological level, then 0.877.	Bearish
AUD/JPY	89.087, 92.95	Price consollidating between 89 and 93 levels.	Neutral
NZD/USD	0.78128, 0.74565	Still in consolidation range. Overall bias is still bearish.	Bearish
AUD/NZD	1.18484, 1.17336	Aussie unable to gather any bullish momentum. May see a bearish extension this week.	Bearish
AUD/CAD	0.96389, 0.9569, 0.94815	Watching for short entry signal at 0.96389 level.	Bearish
USD/CHF	0.95529, 0.935, 0.92054	Ranging price action. Watch for long entry at 0.935 level.	Bullish
USD/JPY	99.879, 96.995, 98	Watching for long entry back towards the 98 level	Bullish
XAU/USD	1243, 1273	Persistent strength in bear trend. Watch for short entry signal.	Bearish
SPX500	1624, 1600	Expecting bearish continuation. Technically into a corrective zig zag pattern.	Bearish
USDOLLAR	10876, 10576	Strong bullish momentum. Will probably look to crack 10876 this week. A disappointing NFP could sink the trend.	Bullish
US Oil	97.63	Price still consolidating below the 98 level. Neutral at the moment. Set short entry at 97.32 level. Close above 97.65 confirms bullish scenario.	Neutral
USD/CAD	1.045, 1.055	Close above 1.045 level cofirms bullish scenario. Watch for long entry signals.	Bullish
GBP/USD	1.51754	Strong bearish momenum. Watch for retracement opportunity for short. Short-term correction possible.	Bearish
GBP/JPY	151.849, 150.458, 149.698	Ranging price action. Slightly bullish. Watch for long opportunity this week.	Bullish
GBP/CAD	1.60415, 1.58770	Price consolidating below 1.60415. Only above this level is bullish scenario restored.	Bearish
GBP/AUD	1.667, 1.663	Bullish momentum. Continuation should be confirmed if price closes above 1.667.	Bullish

Good luck trading this week!

Coming to financial year end 12/13

Good evening traders. We are one day out from the last business day of the financial year. Docket is heavy with US data:

- jobless claims
- personal consumption
- home sales

Have taken a short position on a symmetrical triangle formation on EUR/AUD - trading with the down trend and a basic inside bar break out price action signal. With key data on tap, stop is tight.

Entry @1.39957 with a stop @1.4029. Strategy will be quite tight. After initial move of 20 pips, will tighten the stop to break even.

Looking for some continuation into key support area @1.3824. Good luck trading out there all.

All clogged up...

An apt description for my sinuses at the moment and with a sore throat to top it off. Yes I am officially a walking biohazard. After spreading germs to my workmates yesterday, I thought it better to keep the disease to myself today.

So in between answering emails and preparing documentation (my day job), I had a chance to take a look at the charts around midday. Unexpectedly came across a setup on the GBP/AUD 4 hour chart. Had a few pin bars forming off the moving averages.

Manually triggered the order @ 1.66626 with a stop @ 1.6725.

With the trade now in play and limits set, it was back to work.

Checking on the trade in the evening, I was into a healthy 134 pip profit, a couple of pips out from the target. So with this, I closed the trade for a healthy gain.

Will be keeping an eye out tonight for more setups (as well as the Labour leadership challenge). May the best man/woman win. For the rest of us, good luck trading tonight.

Daily update - 25/06/2013

Good evening all. Quick update on the trade order I set up yesterday. Order did trigger and had a nice 150 pip run. Moved my stop and that was where the good news ends.

The next few sessions saw price action whipsaw back and forth between entry price and yesterday's daily low. Naturally my annoyed and impatient self got the better of me and I exited the trade with a meager 40 pip profit. So far it has yielded a lost opportunity of an additional 50 pips profit ... Doh!

Follow the plan, or be prepared to feel this sort of pain often!

Bad habits dies hard; remember, once a trade is in motion, let it play out. Follow your plan! Don't fiddle whilst you're in the trade where emotions tend to become involved.

Looking forward to the rest of the week. Good luck out there people.

Neutral Day

Hello traders and welcome to the beginning of the trading week. A relatively quiet day with no major headlines.

In focus for the week:
- US GDP
- UK GDP
- EUR CPI and employment, and
- JP CPI

Missed out on EUR/JPY setup, but placing an order now on the double pin price signal.
Short @ 128.75 with an initial target of 125. Stop above previous day high of 129.75.

Waiting for a long entry opportunity on AUD/NZD back at 1.18452 level.

Pairs for the week:

Pair	Level to watch	Description
EUR/USD	1.32	Short entry on retracement into this area. Close above to change bias to bullish.
EUR/JPY	1.30183	Short entry price action signal confirmed (double pin). Short order placed.
EUR/GBP	0.85894	Strong resistance area. Watch for short. Close above to flip bias to bullish.
EUR/AUD	1.42362	Keep an eye on price action at pivot level. H4 indicators starting to turn.
AUD/USD	0.93864	Multi year lows. Break of triangle targetting 0.8. Watch for retracement opportunity to short
AUD/JPY	92.4	Short entry on retracement into this area. Close above to change bias to long with next target at 96.8
NZD/USD	0.77596	Short entry on retracement into this area. Daily close above to target 0.785, then 0.79.
AUD/NZD	1.18256	Close above key level confirmed. Retest confirmation before targetting 1.196.
AUD/CAD	0.961	Close above key level confirmed. Awaiting retest confirmation before targetting 0.98.
USD/CHF	0.93822	Testing resistance. Watching for bearish price signal. Close above flips bias to bullish.
USD/JPY	97.856	Watching for short term long entry at 98 level, targeting retest of 100.
XAU/USD	1321.59	Short entry on retracement into this area. Close above to change bias to bullish.
USD/CAD	1.042	Watch for opportunities for long entry at this level.
GBP/USD	1.541	Close below level suggests continuing bear trend. Next target 1.52673.

So here we are ... June 2013

Hey Everyone,

A long time between posts. I have to say I haven't devoted as much time as I should have to the fundamentals of trading. These are:

1. Plan your trades
2. Keep a trading diary

As you can imagine, my trading record for financial year 2012/13 has been a seesaw. I have been as low as 50% down and as high up as 20% on my trading account as at financial year end 2011/2012.

Looking back, I don't believe there has been a single trading rule I haven't broken. Planning trades is the most important discipline. For me, this is the following list of my crimes against trading:

1. Placing random trades in the absence of price action signals
2. Not spending time on technical patterns - this is a job, not a hobby
3. Not planning out any stops or limits
4. Forgetting to remove stale orders - I am just lucky that when the last one of these gremlins triggered, it triggered in the right direction.

For the year, I am down roughly 25%, which in absolute terms is not much on a micro account.

So, it is time to get back to basics. More frequent updates, planning, and keeping a trading diary.

If anyone cares to follow, I will also be keeping my play by play over on Pinterest.

To conclude this post: wishing myself and all you traders out there good trading into the last week and a half of the Australian financial year. Including one of my favourite memes to sum up my trading attitude lately.