I'll start today off with an update on yesterday's trade. Trailing stop was knocked out at break even (again!!). Have to be content with these sorts of things 'cuz it happens.

A bit of volatility today. Positive news out of the Euro bloc saw EUR crosses rocket up past resistances, only to lose all those gains by NY session.

Losses seen in EUR/CAD (Doh!) and especially GBP/CAD. Kudos to those who caught both yesterday's inside bar short setup and today's fakey pin bar setup (see pic).

Been a bit odd this week. Price action following press release seemed to align then surprises everyone by whipping back up the opposite way. Technical not aligning to fundamentals - always fun.

Looks like rough markets to navigate for the rest of the week. Some big ticket items on the release docket tomorrow out of the US. Will have to see if they manage to jump start some trends.

As always, good luck in tonight's trading all.

Setup on EUR/CAD

Hello traders and welcome to today's call out. Quick update on yesterday's trade. Momentum was quick to die out with gains quickly retraced. Exited during Asian trading hours. Pairs have now completely reversed.

Current trade is EUR/CAD with the short triggered on release of Canadian retail sales which smashed expectations. However, not much follow through after hitting the first target. Looks like another one to grind out. Stop has been trailed to break even. Headed into the start of the US session on a lightweight 14 pip profit after an initial 30 pip gain.

I have included both the H4 and D1 charts highlighting the technical pattern for the basis of the trade - inverted hammers at resistance trend lines.

As always, good luck out there guys. Will catch you again, tomorrow.

Daily Call Out - Early movers

Welcome to today's daily call out (a new phrase I just decided to coin :)). Have two trade setups: USD/CHF and GBP/CAD.

USD/CHF

Inside bar short setup on the 4 hour chart.

• Entry @0.93827
• Target @0.928
• Stop @0.94194

GBP/USD

Inside bar fake out long entry on the 4 hour chart.

• Entry @1.58293
• Target @1.6
• Stop @0.1.5798

Chop

Hi all. The title of the post aptly describes what I felt were the trading conditions last week. With the exception of Yen crosses towards the end of the week, trend trades were very few and far between. This came as a surprise given the heavy event risks during the week (including the Bernanke testimonials).

The chop was horrible on my trades this week, along with a rogue trade mid week on the USD/JPY cross. Would have been better to stay on the sidelines. I ended up an unhealthy 100 pips worse off.

A light docket for event risks going into the new week. However, as a gambling man I would say "leave it to a quiet event risk week to cop all the big price moves." So I head into this week with cautious optimism for continued volatility (always good for us speculators).

SPX500 continues its upwards march, clocking another record close last week. Gains are being closely tracked by the USDOLLAR index which has traditionally been divergent. What will give first?

For the key levels this week, I have added a couple of new dimensions to the directional bias. Will experiment with this and see whether this boosts the trading accuracy (ratio currently sits at roughly 45/50)

Key Levels

Pair	Level(s) to watch	Description	H4 Bias	D1 Bias	W1 Bias
EUR/USD	1.29924, 1.30758, 1.32	Poised for retest of 1.32. Still mildly bullish.	Bullish	Bullish	Neutral
EUR/JPY	131.108, 133.25	Weekly close above previous high at 131.108. Targeting upper trend line resistance of the channel.	Bullish	Bullish	Bullish
EUR/GBP	0.85898	Retesting key 0.86 level. Pair is looking vulnerable if key support fails to hold.	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
EUR/AUD	1.38603, 1.4415	Ranging price action. May retest 1.44756 high set in late June. Close above here would confirm bullish extension.	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
EUR/CHF	1.235, 1.24	Not much movement for the week. Very slightly bullish.	Neutral	Bullish	Bullish
AUD/USD	0.90406, 0.93043	Strong rejection off support at 0.90406. Watch for long entry opportunity.	Neutral	Bearish	Bearish
AUD/JPY	90, 92.95	Bullish engulfing candle on the weekly. Approaching short term resistance again at 92.95.	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NZD/USD	0.78576, 0.8, 0.805	Confirmed reversal off the weekly inverted hammer. Should see another push to the upside this week.	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
AUD/NZD	1.16521	Bearish extension scenario confirmed. Watch for retracement opportunity to sell. Close above 1.16 required to rever short term outlook back to neutral.	Bearish	Bearish	Bearish
AUD/CAD	0.94815	Close above 0.94815. Semi inverted hammer. May see some gains this week. Still short term bearish.	Bearish	Bearish	Bearish
USD/CHF	0.94385	Consolidation in the past week. 10MA bearish. 20MA flattening. Watch for short opportunity this week.	Bearish	Bearish	Neutral
USD/JPY	96.995, 99.9	Recaptures 100 level. May see retest of 103.7 highs. Watch for long entry this week.	Bullish	Bullish	Bullish
USD/CAD	1.025, 1.0360, 1.04366	Pair looking vulnerable this week. Rejection of 1.04366 level. May see a leg down to 1.025 this week.	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
XAU/USD	1267, 1300, 1321	Price consolidating this week. Close above 1300 required for correction continuation.	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
SPX500	1687	Continued bull run on stocks. Record high breached.	Bullish	Bullish	Bullish
US Oil	103.6, 110	Continued march upwards for oil. 110 per barrel 2012 high within sight. Watching for retracement opportunities.	Bullish	Bullish	Bullish
GBP/USD	1.51707, 1.52813	Close above 1.52 level. Watch for opprotunity to join bullish correction this week.	Bullish	Bullish	Neutral
GBP/JPY	153.8	Price close to testing the upper resistance line of the upward sloping channel.	Bullish	Bullish	Bullish
GBP/CAD	1.58770, 1.58, 1.59262	Price consolidating back above the trend line. Needs to close above 1.59262 to signal uptrend coninuation.	Bullish	Bullish	Neutral
GBP/AUD	1.66242, 1.68729	Price back into consolidation ranges. Testing downward sloping trend resistance.	Bullish	Bearish	Neutral

Weekly wrap up 14/07/2013

Hey traders and welcome to this week's wrap up. An extremely volatile week with the FOMC minutes throwing more confusion into the mix; print more money, don't print more money, who knows what the Fed's thinking anymore. Key break outs from previous week somewhat negated on the back of the past week's event risks.

Aussie dollar weakness continues unabated with weaker unemployment figures weighing down the commodity currency. Even the promise of potential continuation of QE3 could not stop the free fall. AUD/USD however has put in a reverse hammer at key psychological level. Will see what happens this week.

Speaking of which, another big week with GDP and CPI figures on tap - I wonder when the fun will stop...ಠ_ಠ.

Key levels to watch

Pair	Level(s) to watch	Description	Bias
EUR/USD	1.29924, 1.32	Strong close above 1.3 level. Changes the bearish outlook to neutral. Short term bullish bias in place.	Neutral
EUR/JPY	128.795, 131.086, 132.745	Upward trending channel maintained. Likely to retest 1.325 level. First line of resistance at 1.31086.	Ranging
EUR/GBP	0.85898	Consolidation above 0.86. Continue to watch for long opportunity.	Bullish
EUR/AUD	1.39769, 1.4415	False break of head and shoulders pattern; new high set. Short term bullish, but still looking for short opportunity.	Bullish
EUR/CHF	1.2363, 1.238	Close to the downside. False break of 1.238 level. Watch for short opportunity.	Ranging
AUD/USD	0.90435, 0.91634	Extremely oversold; another new low set. Reverse hammer on the weekly chart. Watch for long opportunity.	Bearish
AUD/JPY	89.087, 92.95	Strong rejection of price at 93 level. Looking for a restest of 89.087 support.	Ranging
NZD/USD	0.78289, 0.74565	Reverse hammer on the weekly. May see price consolidating above 0.76868 level.	Ranging
AUD/NZD	1.16521	Bearish close; looking like another extension to the downside. Watching price closely at 1.16521 level	Bearish
AUD/CAD	0.94815	Another bearish weekly close signalling an extended run to the down side. Watching price at 0.94815 level.	Bearish
USD/CHF	0.95132, 0.95529	Price consolidating this week below 0.95 after the previous week's false break. Should see one more leg down in the short term to 0.93 level.	Ranging
USD/JPY	96.995, 99.9	Loss of 100 level. Looking at range between 100 and 97.	Ranging
USD/CAD	1.04177, 1.05524	Loss of 1.055 level. Consolidation below this level for the week.	Ranging
XAU/USD	1321	Stronger bullish close this week. Watching for short opportunity towards 1321 level.	Bearish
SPX500	1686	Continued bull run on stocks. Looks to retest 1686 record high.	Bullish
US Oil	103.6	Break of long term triangle. Watch for long opportunity this week.	Bullish
GBP/USD	1.52, 1.52813	Retracement this week. Watch for short opportunity at 1.52813 level.	Bearish
GBP/JPY	151.727, 149.434	Bearish scenario still valid. Watching for a break to the downside of the current range.	Bearish
GBP/CAD	1.58770, 1.58	Break of upward sloping trend line. Well into correction move now, targeting 1.55. Watching for retracement entry opportunity.	Bearish
GBP/AUD	1.63828, 1.662, 1.68729	Close above 1.662. Head and shoulders pattern faked out. Price back into consolidation ranges.	Ranging

Correction underway?

Hello traders and welcome to this evening's commentary. An interesting day spurred on abysmal UK data. This has seen some interesting action in the Aussie and European crosses. Unfortunately I was unable to take advantage of a great pin bar fake out setup on the GBP/AUD which formed on the four hour chart.

From last week's commentary, I was watching closely for the head and shoulders confirmation. This pattern completed on both the EUR/AUD and the GBP/AUD yesterday with the ensuing price action setup occurring today around midday AEST. Unfortunately day job takes priority. It was good looking setup which paid out roughly 4:1. Over the European session, losses on the GBP/AUD accelerated capping off an almost 200 pips decline.

I have marked out the typical head and shoulders break out target which is measured from the break out point. The distance is typically measured as the highest point of the head to the neckline. Will be watching for an opportunity for an entry on any short term retracement as there is still plenty of room for the price action to run.

Long entry on EUR/JPY on fake out setup off 129.493 level. Entry @ 129.863. Stop @ 129.363. Targeting 131 level.

US Dollar Steams Ahead

Hi traders and welcome to the weekend wrap up. This past week saw some very positive news out of the US and very much shite news out of Europe. A positive NFP print capped off the USD gains with more event risk coming up in the new week. I have added a quick link to the economic calendar over at FxStreet. You can find it on the side bar navigation.

Key levels for the coming week:

Pair	Level(s) to watch	Description	Bias
EUR/USD	1.27953	Closes above key level 1.27953. Upward sloping trend line also a key level. Watch for short opportunity.	Bearish
EUR/JPY	129.738, 129.493	Narrow range in the short term. Look for breakout early this week.	Ranging
EUR/GBP	0.85894	Close above key level. Watch for long opportunity.	Bullish
EUR/AUD	1.4073, 1.42546	Upward sloping trend line held this week. Persisting Aussie weakness, but definitely oversold.	Ranging
EUR/CHF	1.2363, 1.238	Slightly bullish this week. Congestion range coming up. Break of 1.238 to confirm stronger bullish momentum.	Ranging
AUD/USD	0.91634, 0.9, 0.877	Another new low set for the end of the week. Continued bearish trend below 0.91634.	Bearish
AUD/JPY	89.087, 92.95	Weekly close above 91. Turns bias towards testing 93 level.	Bullish
NZD/USD	0.78289, 0.74565	Barely closes above bottom of consolidation range. May break early in the week.	Bearish
AUD/NZD	1.17336, 1.18484	Bullish close this week. May begin correction run this week.	Bearish
AUD/CAD	0.96389, 0.94815	Close above 0.96389 required to confirm possible bullish scenario. Short pin signal, but dangerous due to oversold conditions.	Bearish
USD/CHF	0.95529	Bullish close above 0.95529. Watch for long opportunity this week. Next target, 0.98 area.	Bullish
USD/JPY	99.88, 100.70	Bullish close above 100 level for the week. Look for long opportunity back towards this level.	Bullish
USD/CAD	1.055, 1.065	Confirmed close above 1.055. Watch for long opportunities this week targeting 1.065.	Bullish
XAU/USD	1236.8	Persistent strength in bear trend. Watch for short entry signal.	Bearish
SPX500	1654, 1600	Price action was bullish this week with a firm hold of 1600 level. Scenario is neutral for now.	Neutral
US Oil	103.6	Huge move for oil this week. Testing the upper trend line of long term triangle.	Bullish
GBP/USD	1.51754	Strong bearish momenum. Testing lower bound trend line of symmetrical triangle.	Bearish
GBP/JPY	151.727, 149.434	Pin bar fake out on the weekly chart. Watch for short setup this week.	Ranging
GBP/CAD	1.58770, 1.58	Break of upward sloping trend line. Well into correction move now, targeting 1.55	Bearish
GBP/AUD	1.662, 1.63828	Pin bar at key level; heads and shoulders pattern not yet confirmed. Watch for short opportunities back towards 1.662 level.	Ranging

As always, good luck for the coming week.

Risk off day?

Evening traders and welcome to the US session. We have had a relatively risk adverse day with Yen strength and European woes central themes of the day. USD/JPY has lost the 100 handle. Strongest currency by far today appears to be the GBP, bucking the risk off trend.

EUR/GBP collapsed from a strong resistance level today. Unfortunately, I missed that opportunity. Pin bar formed last night and the move was well underway by the time I woke up this morning.

Chart in focus for me today is the EUR/JPY. Few things of note:

• Price is bound within upward sloping channel in the medium term.
• Significant drop today, breaking the short term uptrend on the H4 chart.
• MVAs starting to turn.

Still keeping a close eye on this one, especially at the 129.5-129.8 area. Will be looking for a sell signal forming in this area in the next 24 hours, targeting the 127.4 area.

The 4th July celebrations US tomorrow, so markets will be relatively quiet. EU interest rate decision on tap and then the NFPs to round out the week. Good luck traders and we'll talk to you again tomorrow.

Itching to trade...

Hi all; sitting here with an itchy trigger finger, but can't doing anything about it. Price action has been frustrating. Following significant levels have been cracked so far:

• 100 level for US/JPY
• New high for US dollar index

Price action, however has been less than definitive. See-sawing movement and unconvincing price action all around (at least from my perspective anyway).

Looks like I'll be on the sidelines again. Many times before I've rushed in on a night like this only to have trades go against me more often than not. To those of you who are finding better opportunities ... good luck!

Range trading order of the day...

Hey traders and welcome to today's commentary. Not much going on today with most pairs in consolidation ranges. Just an update from my weekend wrap up. Failed to notice that there were a couple of heads and shoulders patterns forming in certain pairs. Albeit, the neckline is running with the trend. Will still keep a close eye on these patterns today.