Correction underway?

Hello traders and welcome to this evening's commentary. An interesting day spurred on abysmal UK data. This has seen some interesting action in the Aussie and European crosses. Unfortunately I was unable to take advantage of a great pin bar fake out setup on the GBP/AUD which formed on the four hour chart.

From last week's commentary, I was watching closely for the head and shoulders confirmation. This pattern completed on both the EUR/AUD and the GBP/AUD yesterday with the ensuing price action setup occurring today around midday AEST. Unfortunately day job takes priority. It was good looking setup which paid out roughly 4:1. Over the European session, losses on the GBP/AUD accelerated capping off an almost 200 pips decline.

I have marked out the typical head and shoulders break out target which is measured from the break out point. The distance is typically measured as the highest point of the head to the neckline. Will be watching for an opportunity for an entry on any short term retracement as there is still plenty of room for the price action to run.

Long entry on EUR/JPY on fake out setup off 129.493 level. Entry @ 129.863. Stop @ 129.363. Targeting 131 level.

US Dollar Steams Ahead

Hi traders and welcome to the weekend wrap up. This past week saw some very positive news out of the US and very much shite news out of Europe. A positive NFP print capped off the USD gains with more event risk coming up in the new week. I have added a quick link to the economic calendar over at FxStreet. You can find it on the side bar navigation.

Key levels for the coming week:

Pair	Level(s) to watch	Description	Bias
EUR/USD	1.27953	Closes above key level 1.27953. Upward sloping trend line also a key level. Watch for short opportunity.	Bearish
EUR/JPY	129.738, 129.493	Narrow range in the short term. Look for breakout early this week.	Ranging
EUR/GBP	0.85894	Close above key level. Watch for long opportunity.	Bullish
EUR/AUD	1.4073, 1.42546	Upward sloping trend line held this week. Persisting Aussie weakness, but definitely oversold.	Ranging
EUR/CHF	1.2363, 1.238	Slightly bullish this week. Congestion range coming up. Break of 1.238 to confirm stronger bullish momentum.	Ranging
AUD/USD	0.91634, 0.9, 0.877	Another new low set for the end of the week. Continued bearish trend below 0.91634.	Bearish
AUD/JPY	89.087, 92.95	Weekly close above 91. Turns bias towards testing 93 level.	Bullish
NZD/USD	0.78289, 0.74565	Barely closes above bottom of consolidation range. May break early in the week.	Bearish
AUD/NZD	1.17336, 1.18484	Bullish close this week. May begin correction run this week.	Bearish
AUD/CAD	0.96389, 0.94815	Close above 0.96389 required to confirm possible bullish scenario. Short pin signal, but dangerous due to oversold conditions.	Bearish
USD/CHF	0.95529	Bullish close above 0.95529. Watch for long opportunity this week. Next target, 0.98 area.	Bullish
USD/JPY	99.88, 100.70	Bullish close above 100 level for the week. Look for long opportunity back towards this level.	Bullish
USD/CAD	1.055, 1.065	Confirmed close above 1.055. Watch for long opportunities this week targeting 1.065.	Bullish
XAU/USD	1236.8	Persistent strength in bear trend. Watch for short entry signal.	Bearish
SPX500	1654, 1600	Price action was bullish this week with a firm hold of 1600 level. Scenario is neutral for now.	Neutral
US Oil	103.6	Huge move for oil this week. Testing the upper trend line of long term triangle.	Bullish
GBP/USD	1.51754	Strong bearish momenum. Testing lower bound trend line of symmetrical triangle.	Bearish
GBP/JPY	151.727, 149.434	Pin bar fake out on the weekly chart. Watch for short setup this week.	Ranging
GBP/CAD	1.58770, 1.58	Break of upward sloping trend line. Well into correction move now, targeting 1.55	Bearish
GBP/AUD	1.662, 1.63828	Pin bar at key level; heads and shoulders pattern not yet confirmed. Watch for short opportunities back towards 1.662 level.	Ranging

As always, good luck for the coming week.

Risk off day?

Evening traders and welcome to the US session. We have had a relatively risk adverse day with Yen strength and European woes central themes of the day. USD/JPY has lost the 100 handle. Strongest currency by far today appears to be the GBP, bucking the risk off trend.

EUR/GBP collapsed from a strong resistance level today. Unfortunately, I missed that opportunity. Pin bar formed last night and the move was well underway by the time I woke up this morning.

Chart in focus for me today is the EUR/JPY. Few things of note:

• Price is bound within upward sloping channel in the medium term.
• Significant drop today, breaking the short term uptrend on the H4 chart.
• MVAs starting to turn.

Still keeping a close eye on this one, especially at the 129.5-129.8 area. Will be looking for a sell signal forming in this area in the next 24 hours, targeting the 127.4 area.

The 4th July celebrations US tomorrow, so markets will be relatively quiet. EU interest rate decision on tap and then the NFPs to round out the week. Good luck traders and we'll talk to you again tomorrow.

Itching to trade...

Hi all; sitting here with an itchy trigger finger, but can't doing anything about it. Price action has been frustrating. Following significant levels have been cracked so far:

• 100 level for US/JPY
• New high for US dollar index

Price action, however has been less than definitive. See-sawing movement and unconvincing price action all around (at least from my perspective anyway).

Looks like I'll be on the sidelines again. Many times before I've rushed in on a night like this only to have trades go against me more often than not. To those of you who are finding better opportunities ... good luck!

Range trading order of the day...

Hey traders and welcome to today's commentary. Not much going on today with most pairs in consolidation ranges. Just an update from my weekend wrap up. Failed to notice that there were a couple of heads and shoulders patterns forming in certain pairs. Albeit, the neckline is running with the trend. Will still keep a close eye on these patterns today.

Weekly update 29/06/2013

Hello traders and welcome to the weekly recap for the week ending 29/06/2013. Quick update on my trade on Friday. Order was stopped out on the back of Aussie dollar weakeness as the US dollar continued to surge on the back QE tapering speculation.

Heading into a week full of event risks to start the new financial year with the following data on tap:

Mon	EUR	CPI
TUE	AUD	RBA interest rate decision
THU	GBP	BOE interest rate decision
THU	EUR	EUR interest rate decision and monetary statement
FRI	USD	The almighty non farm payrolls pring (NFP)

Key levels for the coming week:

Pair	Level(s)	Description	Bias
EUR/USD	1.3 - 1.31	Potential short entry on reverse pin bar fakeout. Bullish above 1.31	Bearish
EUR/JPY	129.483, 127, 125.162	Barely closed above the downward sloping trend line starting from May top. Outlook neutral for the moment.	Neutral
EUR/GBP	0.85894, 0.847, 0.84	Price rejected from key level (pin bar formation). Will watch for short trade opportunity. Bullish above 0.8589	Neutral
EUR/AUD	1.4396, 1.41681, 1.39769	Aussie weakness persisting. Price may be targeting 1.4396 retest this week.	Bullish
AUD/USD	0.93864, 0.9, 0.877	Fresh multi-year low. Targeting 0.9 psychological level, then 0.877.	Bearish
AUD/JPY	89.087, 92.95	Price consollidating between 89 and 93 levels.	Neutral
NZD/USD	0.78128, 0.74565	Still in consolidation range. Overall bias is still bearish.	Bearish
AUD/NZD	1.18484, 1.17336	Aussie unable to gather any bullish momentum. May see a bearish extension this week.	Bearish
AUD/CAD	0.96389, 0.9569, 0.94815	Watching for short entry signal at 0.96389 level.	Bearish
USD/CHF	0.95529, 0.935, 0.92054	Ranging price action. Watch for long entry at 0.935 level.	Bullish
USD/JPY	99.879, 96.995, 98	Watching for long entry back towards the 98 level	Bullish
XAU/USD	1243, 1273	Persistent strength in bear trend. Watch for short entry signal.	Bearish
SPX500	1624, 1600	Expecting bearish continuation. Technically into a corrective zig zag pattern.	Bearish
USDOLLAR	10876, 10576	Strong bullish momentum. Will probably look to crack 10876 this week. A disappointing NFP could sink the trend.	Bullish
US Oil	97.63	Price still consolidating below the 98 level. Neutral at the moment. Set short entry at 97.32 level. Close above 97.65 confirms bullish scenario.	Neutral
USD/CAD	1.045, 1.055	Close above 1.045 level cofirms bullish scenario. Watch for long entry signals.	Bullish
GBP/USD	1.51754	Strong bearish momenum. Watch for retracement opportunity for short. Short-term correction possible.	Bearish
GBP/JPY	151.849, 150.458, 149.698	Ranging price action. Slightly bullish. Watch for long opportunity this week.	Bullish
GBP/CAD	1.60415, 1.58770	Price consolidating below 1.60415. Only above this level is bullish scenario restored.	Bearish
GBP/AUD	1.667, 1.663	Bullish momentum. Continuation should be confirmed if price closes above 1.667.	Bullish

Good luck trading this week!