Watching for some reversal action this week ...

Hello traders and welcome to the weekly wrap up. Been a busy week. Tapering theme did not help the USD in the past week as weaker data undermined its strength. Looking in the week ahead, several reversal patterns taking shape at key resistance. Fingers crossed that I can capitalize on these this week. With that onto this week's forecast.

Pair	Level(s) to watch	Description
EUR/USD	1.32418, 1.34, 1.37098	Another weekly high set, but unable to close above 1.34. Pin bar fake out pattern. Watch for a short setup in the coming week (contrarian trade).
EUR/JPY	127.957, 129.493, 131.108, 132.738	Bullish week off 130 level. 131.108 is resistance turned support. Should be testing 132.738 this week.
EUR/GBP	0.84, 0.8468, 0.85898	Bullish momentum this week testing the 0.86 level, but unable to close above. Neutral at the moment on this pair. Watch for a break or rejection in the coming week from 0.85898 pivot.
EUR/AUD	1.44475, 1.45996, 1.47668, 1.49934	Inside bars on the daily chart. Slightly bearish on the H4 chart. Daily and weekly trends are still bullish.
EUR/CHF	1.22382, 1.22846, 1.24341	Bulls unable to take hold on this pair. Pair is neutral at the moment, but gut feel is to favour a retest of 1.2434.
EUR/CAD	1.36640, 1.38156, 1.39199, 1.41142	Bullish breakout of 1.38156. Next target target 1.41082. Watch for long entry signal.
AUD/USD	0.88468, 0.90406, 0.93043	No continuation on the break of 0.90406. Neutral on this pair at the moment. Watching for price action signal at 0.90406 pivot.
AUD/JPY	86.396, 89.68, 92.726	Bearish momentum stalled for the moment. Favour a break back above 89.68 if postitive risk appetitie takes hold this week.
NZD/USD	0.74656, 0.76868, 0.78576, 0.80979	NZD belted this week. Convincing close below 0.78576. Outlook is bearish all the way for this one in the upcoming week.
AUD/NZD	1.12639, 1.146	Positive break above 1.146. Watch for long entry opportunity.
AUD/CAD	0.93519, 0.95067, 0.96389	Pin bar off 0.93519. Watch for long entry opportunity this week.
USD/CHF	0.91745, 0.93887	Support at 0.91745 barely holding in the past week. May be an opportunity to play the reversal similar to EUR/USD pair.
USD/JPY	96.995, 98.231, 99.951, 101.522	Strong close above 98.231 and minor break of downward sloping resistance line. Favour continuation of bullish momentum in the coming week.
USD/CAD	1.03355, 1.04381, 1.05552	Bullish week which retested 1.05552. Pin bar reversal play maybe possible.
XAU/USD	1344.08, 1379.1, 1421.9, 1485.3	Bullish above 1344.08 key level. Looking for extension into 1421, then 1485. Watching for long entry opportunity this week.
SPX500	1598.4, 1647.9	Bearish momentum stalled. Neutral on the index at the moment.
GBP/USD	1.54194, 1.55737, 1.57365	Close for the week at key pivot without testing 1.57503. Watch for price action signal around this pivot level.
GBP/JPY	147.584, 151.468, 154.032	Price still in medium term consolidation. Testing the upper bound resistance. Pin bar fake out.
GBP/CAD	1.60415, 1.62029, 1.63891	Price broken above multi year highs. Testing 2011 levels.
GBP/AUD	1.63864, 1.68759, 1.7341	New high set in the past week, but did not close above key 1.7341 level. May see possible reversal this week.

As I mentioned previously, here are some of the short term reversal trades I'm looking at setting up this week:

Wow that was quick...

Just like that, almost three weeks have past since I posted. A weekend at the snow, a few days recovery, daddy duties, and work ... adds up doesn't it? Annnyyy whooooo, I am back and trying to make a living in the currency markets, which incidentally have been very unkind to me as of late. No matter, onwards to a mid week report:

Pair	Level(s) to watch	Description
EUR/USD	1.32418, 1.34, 1.37098	Bullish breakout to the upside. Watching for retracement entry.
EUR/JPY	127.957, 129.493, 131.108, 132.738	Consolidation phase at key levels. Some volatility.
EUR/GBP	0.84, 0.8468, 0.85898	Bearish below 0.85898. Watch for short opportunity.
EUR/AUD	1.38603, 1.44475, 1.49934	Bullish momentum continuing. Price is likely to retest 1.5 level. Bullish above 1.44475.
EUR/CHF	1.22845, 1.24341	Price consolidation above 1.22845. Neutral outlook at the moment.
EUR/CAD	1.36640, 1.38156, 1.39199	Bullish breakout price action. Next target target 1.41082.
AUD/USD	0.88468, 0.90406, 0.93043	Price consolidating above 0.90406. Break of this level will target low of 0.88468
AUD/JPY	86.396, 89.68	Consolidation below 89.68 level. Outlook continues to favour bears.
NZD/USD	0.76868, 0.78576, 0.80979	Sideways consolidation. Next support at 0.78576.
AUD/NZD	1.12639, 1.146	Sideways consolidation. Targeting resistance at 1.146
AUD/CAD	0.93519, 0.94869, 0.96389	Price consolidating at 0.93519 key level. May see short term bounce to 0.94869, then 0.96389.
USD/CHF	0.91745, 0.93887	Price curently at bottom of consolidation range. Break below 0.91745 signals extension to 0.9 level.
USD/JPY	96.995, 98.231	Price consolidating just above 97 level. Watch for short opportunity.
USD/CAD	1.03355, 1.04381	Price testing resistance. Needs to break above 1.04381 for continuation.
XAU/USD	1344.08, 1421.9, 1485.3	Bullish above 1344.08 key level. Looking for extension into 1421, then 1485.
SPX500	1598.4, 1647.9	Daily close below 50MVA. Index targeting 1598.4 area.
GBP/USD	1.55737, 1.57365	Targeting 1.57365 area. Look to play range between upper and lower bound.
GBP/JPY	147.584, 151.468, 153.659	Price still in medium term consolidation. Testing the upper bound resistance.
GBP/CAD	1.60415, 1.62029, 1.63891	Price broken above multi year highs. Testing 2011 levels.
GBP/AUD	1.63864, 1.68759, 1.7341	Testing multi year highs. Failure at resistance may present short opportunity.

Frustration

Have been extremely busy at work since my last post, and wouldn't you know it, that's when the market decides to move. Missed out on a swag load of opportunities. Call it laziness, call it busy from getting home at God awful hours in the night. Either way I could not capitalize. Instead I chose to make an undisciplined and unplanned trade. Result: 60 pip loss within secs. Awesome way to start the weekend...

Taking a look at my trades in the past year and consistency continues to elude me. Does not look like an issue with the technique, but more with the start stop approach which has plagued my relatively short trading career. That is, narrow periods of concentration across days and weeks where I do well with focus, offset by weeks to months of inactivity and forgetting all the fundamentals. Need a better way to beat myself into shape.

Enough whining, onwards to this week's analysis...

Pair	Level(s) to watch	Description
EUR/USD	1.32, 1.33	Ranging price action between 1.32 and 1.33.
EUR/JPY	129.493, 131.108, 132.738	Ranging prices action between 129.493 and 132.
EUR/GBP	0.86637	Price pushing higer within expanding wedge formation. Moving averages are bullish.
EUR/AUD	1.38603, 1.4415	Aussie dollar continuing to suck across the board. Should be another extended wave up. Watching for long entry opportunity.
EUR/CHF	1.235	Slightly bearish consolidation towards upward sloping trendline support.
EUR/CAD	1.37	Break of key level 1.37. Watch for retracement for long opportunity. Likely to hit 1.43381
AUD/USD	0.877, 0.90406	Sux to be Aussie right now. No end to the pain in sight. Watch for short opportunity. Likely extension into 0.85 area.
AUD/JPY	86, 89, 90	Same assessment as USD counterpart. Looking out for extension into support at 86 level.
NZD/USD	0.78576, 0.8, 0.805	Bullish engulfing bar off mva(20). Close below 0.78576 level. Likely to retest 0.76868 this week.
AUD/NZD	1.16521	1.12 target reached. Looking for price consolidation this week.
AUD/CAD	0.93519, 0.94815	0.93519 level breached. Extension likely. Watch for short opportunity.
USD/CHF	0.92054, 0.92272,	Inverted hammer close to key level. May see beginning of a reversal this week off the upward sloping support line of triangle formation.
USD/JPY	97.5, 99.7	Unable to hold 100 level. Price caught in downward descending channel.
USD/CAD	1.03355, 1.04381	Rebound off 1.025 level and close above 1.03355. Should retest 1.04381.
XAU/USD	1267, 1300, 1321	Weekly pattern still bearish. Daily MVAs bullish with fakey setup off key 1300 level.
SPX500	1709	Another historical high this week. US economy slow down? Bitch please!
US Oil	Discontinued
GBP/USD	1.52491, 1.54	Large pin bar off 1.51 level on the weekly chart. Bullish engulfing candle off the daily. Likely extension to the upside this week.
GBP/JPY	150.68, 151.727	False break of the rising channel this week. Still watching for a move to the down side.
GBP/CAD	1.58770, 1.58, 1.59262	Price consolidating back above the trend line. Needs to close above 1.59262 to signal uptrend coninuation.
GBP/AUD	1.68729	Extremely bullish. Watch for long entry back at 1.68729 support level

Trend map

I'll start today off with an update on yesterday's trade. Trailing stop was knocked out at break even (again!!). Have to be content with these sorts of things 'cuz it happens.

A bit of volatility today. Positive news out of the Euro bloc saw EUR crosses rocket up past resistances, only to lose all those gains by NY session.

Losses seen in EUR/CAD (Doh!) and especially GBP/CAD. Kudos to those who caught both yesterday's inside bar short setup and today's fakey pin bar setup (see pic).

Been a bit odd this week. Price action following press release seemed to align then surprises everyone by whipping back up the opposite way. Technical not aligning to fundamentals - always fun.

Looks like rough markets to navigate for the rest of the week. Some big ticket items on the release docket tomorrow out of the US. Will have to see if they manage to jump start some trends.

As always, good luck in tonight's trading all.

Setup on EUR/CAD

Hello traders and welcome to today's call out. Quick update on yesterday's trade. Momentum was quick to die out with gains quickly retraced. Exited during Asian trading hours. Pairs have now completely reversed.

Current trade is EUR/CAD with the short triggered on release of Canadian retail sales which smashed expectations. However, not much follow through after hitting the first target. Looks like another one to grind out. Stop has been trailed to break even. Headed into the start of the US session on a lightweight 14 pip profit after an initial 30 pip gain.

I have included both the H4 and D1 charts highlighting the technical pattern for the basis of the trade - inverted hammers at resistance trend lines.

As always, good luck out there guys. Will catch you again, tomorrow.

Daily Call Out - Early movers

Welcome to today's daily call out (a new phrase I just decided to coin :)). Have two trade setups: USD/CHF and GBP/CAD.

USD/CHF

Inside bar short setup on the 4 hour chart.

• Entry @0.93827
• Target @0.928
• Stop @0.94194

GBP/USD

Inside bar fake out long entry on the 4 hour chart.

• Entry @1.58293
• Target @1.6
• Stop @0.1.5798

Chop

Hi all. The title of the post aptly describes what I felt were the trading conditions last week. With the exception of Yen crosses towards the end of the week, trend trades were very few and far between. This came as a surprise given the heavy event risks during the week (including the Bernanke testimonials).

The chop was horrible on my trades this week, along with a rogue trade mid week on the USD/JPY cross. Would have been better to stay on the sidelines. I ended up an unhealthy 100 pips worse off.

A light docket for event risks going into the new week. However, as a gambling man I would say "leave it to a quiet event risk week to cop all the big price moves." So I head into this week with cautious optimism for continued volatility (always good for us speculators).

SPX500 continues its upwards march, clocking another record close last week. Gains are being closely tracked by the USDOLLAR index which has traditionally been divergent. What will give first?

For the key levels this week, I have added a couple of new dimensions to the directional bias. Will experiment with this and see whether this boosts the trading accuracy (ratio currently sits at roughly 45/50)

Key Levels

Pair	Level(s) to watch	Description	H4 Bias	D1 Bias	W1 Bias
EUR/USD	1.29924, 1.30758, 1.32	Poised for retest of 1.32. Still mildly bullish.	Bullish	Bullish	Neutral
EUR/JPY	131.108, 133.25	Weekly close above previous high at 131.108. Targeting upper trend line resistance of the channel.	Bullish	Bullish	Bullish
EUR/GBP	0.85898	Retesting key 0.86 level. Pair is looking vulnerable if key support fails to hold.	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
EUR/AUD	1.38603, 1.4415	Ranging price action. May retest 1.44756 high set in late June. Close above here would confirm bullish extension.	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
EUR/CHF	1.235, 1.24	Not much movement for the week. Very slightly bullish.	Neutral	Bullish	Bullish
AUD/USD	0.90406, 0.93043	Strong rejection off support at 0.90406. Watch for long entry opportunity.	Neutral	Bearish	Bearish
AUD/JPY	90, 92.95	Bullish engulfing candle on the weekly. Approaching short term resistance again at 92.95.	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NZD/USD	0.78576, 0.8, 0.805	Confirmed reversal off the weekly inverted hammer. Should see another push to the upside this week.	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
AUD/NZD	1.16521	Bearish extension scenario confirmed. Watch for retracement opportunity to sell. Close above 1.16 required to rever short term outlook back to neutral.	Bearish	Bearish	Bearish
AUD/CAD	0.94815	Close above 0.94815. Semi inverted hammer. May see some gains this week. Still short term bearish.	Bearish	Bearish	Bearish
USD/CHF	0.94385	Consolidation in the past week. 10MA bearish. 20MA flattening. Watch for short opportunity this week.	Bearish	Bearish	Neutral
USD/JPY	96.995, 99.9	Recaptures 100 level. May see retest of 103.7 highs. Watch for long entry this week.	Bullish	Bullish	Bullish
USD/CAD	1.025, 1.0360, 1.04366	Pair looking vulnerable this week. Rejection of 1.04366 level. May see a leg down to 1.025 this week.	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
XAU/USD	1267, 1300, 1321	Price consolidating this week. Close above 1300 required for correction continuation.	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
SPX500	1687	Continued bull run on stocks. Record high breached.	Bullish	Bullish	Bullish
US Oil	103.6, 110	Continued march upwards for oil. 110 per barrel 2012 high within sight. Watching for retracement opportunities.	Bullish	Bullish	Bullish
GBP/USD	1.51707, 1.52813	Close above 1.52 level. Watch for opprotunity to join bullish correction this week.	Bullish	Bullish	Neutral
GBP/JPY	153.8	Price close to testing the upper resistance line of the upward sloping channel.	Bullish	Bullish	Bullish
GBP/CAD	1.58770, 1.58, 1.59262	Price consolidating back above the trend line. Needs to close above 1.59262 to signal uptrend coninuation.	Bullish	Bullish	Neutral
GBP/AUD	1.66242, 1.68729	Price back into consolidation ranges. Testing downward sloping trend resistance.	Bullish	Bearish	Neutral