Sunday, 25 August 2013

Watching for some reversal action this week ...

Hello traders and welcome to the weekly wrap up. Been a busy week. Tapering theme did not help the USD in the past week as weaker data undermined its strength. Looking in the week ahead, several reversal patterns taking shape at key resistance. Fingers crossed that I can capitalize on these this week. With that onto this week's forecast.

Pair Level(s) to watch Description
EUR/USD 1.32418, 1.34, 1.37098 Another weekly high set, but unable to close above 1.34. Pin bar fake out pattern. Watch for a short setup in the coming week (contrarian trade).
EUR/JPY 127.957, 129.493, 131.108, 132.738 Bullish week off 130 level. 131.108 is resistance turned support. Should be testing 132.738 this week.
EUR/GBP 0.84, 0.8468, 0.85898 Bullish momentum this week testing the 0.86 level, but unable to close above. Neutral at the moment on this pair. Watch for a break or rejection in the coming week from 0.85898 pivot.
EUR/AUD 1.44475, 1.45996, 1.47668, 1.49934 Inside bars on the daily chart. Slightly bearish on the H4 chart. Daily and weekly trends are still bullish.
EUR/CHF 1.22382, 1.22846, 1.24341 Bulls unable to take hold on this pair. Pair is neutral at the moment, but gut feel is to favour a retest of 1.2434.
EUR/CAD 1.36640, 1.38156, 1.39199, 1.41142 Bullish breakout of 1.38156. Next target target 1.41082. Watch for long entry signal.
AUD/USD 0.88468, 0.90406, 0.93043 No continuation on the break of 0.90406. Neutral on this pair at the moment. Watching for price action signal at 0.90406 pivot.
AUD/JPY 86.396, 89.68, 92.726 Bearish momentum stalled for the moment. Favour a break back above 89.68 if postitive risk appetitie takes hold this week.
NZD/USD 0.74656, 0.76868, 0.78576, 0.80979 NZD belted this week. Convincing close below 0.78576. Outlook is bearish all the way for this one in the upcoming week.
AUD/NZD 1.12639, 1.146 Positive break above 1.146. Watch for long entry opportunity.
AUD/CAD 0.93519, 0.95067, 0.96389 Pin bar off 0.93519. Watch for long entry opportunity this week.
USD/CHF 0.91745, 0.93887 Support at 0.91745 barely holding in the past week. May be an opportunity to play the reversal similar to EUR/USD pair.
USD/JPY 96.995, 98.231, 99.951, 101.522 Strong close above 98.231 and minor break of downward sloping resistance line. Favour continuation of bullish momentum in the coming week.
USD/CAD 1.03355, 1.04381, 1.05552 Bullish week which retested 1.05552. Pin bar reversal play maybe possible.
XAU/USD 1344.08, 1379.1, 1421.9, 1485.3 Bullish above 1344.08 key level. Looking for extension into 1421, then 1485. Watching for long entry opportunity this week.
SPX500 1598.4, 1647.9 Bearish momentum stalled. Neutral on the index at the moment.
GBP/USD 1.54194, 1.55737, 1.57365 Close for the week at key pivot without testing 1.57503. Watch for price action signal around this pivot level.
GBP/JPY 147.584, 151.468, 154.032 Price still in medium term consolidation. Testing the upper bound resistance. Pin bar fake out.
GBP/CAD 1.60415, 1.62029, 1.63891 Price broken above multi year highs. Testing 2011 levels.
GBP/AUD 1.63864, 1.68759, 1.7341 New high set in the past week, but did not close above key 1.7341 level. May see possible reversal this week.

As I mentioned previously, here are some of the short term reversal trades I'm looking at setting up this week:





Wednesday, 21 August 2013

Wow that was quick...

Just like that, almost three weeks have past since I posted. A weekend at the snow, a few days recovery, daddy duties, and work ... adds up doesn't it? Annnyyy whooooo, I am back and trying to make a living in the currency markets, which incidentally have been very unkind to me as of late. No matter, onwards to a mid week report:


Pair Level(s) to watch Description
EUR/USD 1.32418, 1.34, 1.37098 Bullish breakout to the upside. Watching for retracement entry.
EUR/JPY 127.957, 129.493, 131.108, 132.738 Consolidation phase at key levels. Some volatility.
EUR/GBP 0.84, 0.8468, 0.85898 Bearish below 0.85898. Watch for short opportunity.
EUR/AUD 1.38603, 1.44475, 1.49934 Bullish momentum continuing. Price is likely to retest 1.5 level. Bullish above 1.44475.
EUR/CHF 1.22845, 1.24341 Price consolidation above 1.22845. Neutral outlook at the moment.
EUR/CAD 1.36640, 1.38156, 1.39199 Bullish breakout price action. Next target target 1.41082.
AUD/USD 0.88468, 0.90406, 0.93043 Price consolidating above 0.90406. Break of this level will target low of 0.88468
AUD/JPY 86.396, 89.68 Consolidation below 89.68 level. Outlook continues to favour bears.
NZD/USD 0.76868, 0.78576, 0.80979 Sideways consolidation. Next support at 0.78576.
AUD/NZD 1.12639, 1.146 Sideways consolidation. Targeting resistance at 1.146
AUD/CAD 0.93519, 0.94869, 0.96389 Price consolidating at 0.93519 key level. May see short term bounce to 0.94869, then 0.96389.
USD/CHF 0.91745, 0.93887 Price curently at bottom of consolidation range. Break below 0.91745 signals extension to 0.9 level.
USD/JPY 96.995, 98.231 Price consolidating just above 97 level. Watch for short opportunity.
USD/CAD 1.03355, 1.04381 Price testing resistance. Needs to break above 1.04381 for continuation.
XAU/USD 1344.08, 1421.9, 1485.3 Bullish above 1344.08 key level. Looking for extension into 1421, then 1485.
SPX500 1598.4, 1647.9 Daily close below 50MVA. Index targeting 1598.4 area.
GBP/USD 1.55737, 1.57365 Targeting 1.57365 area. Look to play range between upper and lower bound.
GBP/JPY 147.584, 151.468, 153.659 Price still in medium term consolidation. Testing the upper bound resistance.
GBP/CAD 1.60415, 1.62029, 1.63891 Price broken above multi year highs. Testing 2011 levels.
GBP/AUD 1.63864, 1.68759, 1.7341 Testing multi year highs. Failure at resistance may present short opportunity.

Sunday, 4 August 2013

Frustration

Have been extremely busy at work since my last post, and wouldn't you know it, that's when the market decides to move. Missed out on a swag load of opportunities. Call it laziness, call it busy from getting home at God awful hours in the night. Either way I could not capitalize. Instead I chose to make an undisciplined and unplanned trade. Result: 60 pip loss within secs. Awesome way to start the weekend...

Taking a look at my trades in the past year and consistency continues to elude me. Does not look like an issue with the technique, but more with the start stop approach which has plagued my relatively short trading career. That is, narrow periods of concentration across days and weeks where I do well with focus, offset by weeks to months of inactivity and forgetting all the fundamentals. Need a better way to beat myself into shape.

Enough whining, onwards to this week's analysis...


Pair Level(s) to watch Description
EUR/USD 1.32, 1.33 Ranging price action between 1.32 and 1.33.
EUR/JPY 129.493, 131.108, 132.738 Ranging prices action between 129.493 and 132.
EUR/GBP 0.86637 Price pushing higer within expanding wedge formation. Moving averages are bullish.
EUR/AUD 1.38603, 1.4415 Aussie dollar continuing to suck across the board. Should be another extended wave up. Watching for long entry opportunity.
EUR/CHF 1.235 Slightly bearish consolidation towards upward sloping trendline support.
EUR/CAD 1.37 Break of key level 1.37. Watch for retracement for long opportunity. Likely to hit 1.43381
AUD/USD 0.877, 0.90406 Sux to be Aussie right now. No end to the pain in sight. Watch for short opportunity. Likely extension into 0.85 area.
AUD/JPY 86, 89, 90 Same assessment as USD counterpart. Looking out for extension into support at 86 level.
NZD/USD 0.78576, 0.8, 0.805 Bullish engulfing bar off mva(20). Close below 0.78576 level. Likely to retest 0.76868 this week.
AUD/NZD 1.16521 1.12 target reached. Looking for price consolidation this week.
AUD/CAD 0.93519, 0.94815 0.93519 level breached. Extension likely. Watch for short opportunity.
USD/CHF 0.92054, 0.92272,  Inverted hammer close to key level. May see beginning of a reversal this week off the upward sloping support line of triangle formation.
USD/JPY 97.5, 99.7 Unable to hold 100 level. Price caught in downward descending channel.
USD/CAD 1.03355, 1.04381 Rebound off 1.025 level and close above 1.03355. Should retest 1.04381.
XAU/USD 1267, 1300, 1321 Weekly pattern still bearish. Daily MVAs bullish with fakey setup off key 1300 level.
SPX500 1709 Another historical high this week. US economy slow down? Bitch please!
US Oil Discontinued
GBP/USD 1.52491, 1.54 Large pin bar off 1.51 level on the weekly chart. Bullish engulfing candle off the daily. Likely extension to the upside this week.
GBP/JPY 150.68, 151.727 False break of the rising channel this week. Still watching for a move to the down side.
GBP/CAD 1.58770, 1.58, 1.59262 Price consolidating back above the trend line. Needs to close above 1.59262 to signal uptrend coninuation.
GBP/AUD 1.68729 Extremely bullish. Watch for long entry back at 1.68729 support level

Trend map


Wednesday, 24 July 2013

I'll start today off with an update on yesterday's trade. Trailing stop was knocked out at break even (again!!). Have to be content with these sorts of things 'cuz it happens.

A bit of volatility today. Positive news out of the Euro bloc saw EUR crosses rocket up past resistances, only to lose all those gains by NY session.

Losses seen in EUR/CAD (Doh!) and especially GBP/CAD. Kudos to those who caught both yesterday's inside bar short setup and today's fakey pin bar setup (see pic).

Been a bit odd this week. Price action following press release seemed to align then surprises everyone by whipping back up the opposite way. Technical not aligning to fundamentals - always fun.

Looks like rough markets to navigate for the rest of the week. Some big ticket items on the release docket tomorrow out of the US. Will have to see if they manage to jump start some trends.


As always, good luck in tonight's trading all.


Tuesday, 23 July 2013

Setup on EUR/CAD

Hello traders and welcome to today's call out. Quick update on yesterday's trade. Momentum was quick to die out with gains quickly retraced. Exited during Asian trading hours. Pairs have now completely reversed.

Current trade is EUR/CAD with the short triggered on release of Canadian retail sales which smashed expectations. However, not much follow through after hitting the first target. Looks like another one to grind out. Stop has been trailed to break even. Headed into the start of the US session on a lightweight 14 pip profit after an initial 30 pip gain.




I have included both the H4 and D1 charts highlighting the technical pattern for the basis of the trade - inverted hammers at resistance trend lines.

As always, good luck out there guys. Will catch you again, tomorrow.

Monday, 22 July 2013

Daily Call Out - Early movers

Welcome to today's daily call out (a new phrase I just decided to coin :)). Have two trade setups: USD/CHF and GBP/CAD.

USD/CHF

Inside bar short setup on the 4 hour chart.

  • Entry @0.93827
  • Target @0.928
  • Stop @0.94194


GBP/USD

Inside bar fake out long entry on the 4 hour chart.

  • Entry @1.58293
  • Target @1.6
  • Stop @0.1.5798


Sunday, 21 July 2013

Chop

Hi all. The title of the post aptly describes what I felt were the trading conditions last week. With the exception of Yen crosses towards the end of the week, trend trades were very few and far between. This came as a surprise given the heavy event risks during the week (including the Bernanke testimonials).

The chop was horrible on my trades this week, along with a rogue trade mid week on the USD/JPY cross. Would have been better to stay on the sidelines. I ended up an unhealthy 100 pips worse off.

A light docket for event risks going into the new week. However, as a gambling man I would say "leave it to a quiet event risk week to cop all the big price moves." So I head into this week with cautious optimism for continued volatility (always good for us speculators).

SPX500 continues its upwards march, clocking another record close last week. Gains are being closely tracked by the USDOLLAR index which has traditionally been divergent. What will give first?


For the key levels this week, I have added a couple of new dimensions to the directional bias. Will experiment with this and see whether this boosts the trading accuracy (ratio currently sits at roughly 45/50)

Key Levels

Pair Level(s) to watch Description H4 Bias D1 Bias W1 Bias
EUR/USD 1.29924, 1.30758, 1.32 Poised for retest of 1.32. Still mildly bullish. Bullish Bullish Neutral
EUR/JPY 131.108, 133.25 Weekly close above previous high at 131.108. Targeting upper trend line resistance of the channel. Bullish Bullish Bullish
EUR/GBP 0.85898 Retesting key 0.86 level. Pair is looking vulnerable if key support fails to hold. Bearish Bullish Bullish
EUR/AUD 1.38603, 1.4415 Ranging price action. May retest 1.44756 high set in late June. Close above here would confirm bullish extension. Bearish Bullish Bullish
EUR/CHF 1.235, 1.24 Not much movement for the week. Very slightly bullish. Neutral Bullish Bullish
AUD/USD 0.90406, 0.93043 Strong rejection off support at 0.90406. Watch for long entry opportunity. Neutral Bearish Bearish
AUD/JPY 90, 92.95 Bullish engulfing candle on the weekly. Approaching short term resistance again at 92.95. Bullish Bullish Bearish
NZD/USD 0.78576, 0.8, 0.805 Confirmed reversal off the weekly inverted hammer. Should see another push to the upside this week. Bullish Bullish Bearish
AUD/NZD 1.16521 Bearish extension scenario confirmed. Watch for retracement opportunity to sell. Close above 1.16 required to rever short term outlook back to neutral. Bearish Bearish Bearish
AUD/CAD 0.94815 Close above 0.94815. Semi inverted hammer. May see some gains this week. Still short term bearish. Bearish Bearish Bearish
USD/CHF 0.94385 Consolidation in the past week. 10MA bearish. 20MA flattening. Watch for short opportunity this week. Bearish Bearish Neutral
USD/JPY 96.995, 99.9 Recaptures 100 level. May see retest of 103.7 highs. Watch for long entry this week. Bullish Bullish Bullish
USD/CAD 1.025, 1.0360, 1.04366 Pair looking vulnerable this week. Rejection of 1.04366 level. May see a leg down to 1.025 this week. Bearish Bearish Bullish
XAU/USD 1267, 1300, 1321 Price consolidating this week. Close above 1300 required for correction continuation. Bullish Bullish Bearish
SPX500 1687 Continued bull run on stocks. Record high breached. Bullish Bullish Bullish
US Oil 103.6, 110 Continued march upwards for oil. 110 per barrel 2012 high within sight. Watching for retracement opportunities. Bullish Bullish Bullish
GBP/USD 1.51707, 1.52813 Close above 1.52 level. Watch for opprotunity to join bullish correction this week. Bullish Bullish Neutral
GBP/JPY 153.8 Price close to testing the upper resistance line of the upward sloping channel. Bullish Bullish Bullish
GBP/CAD 1.58770, 1.58, 1.59262 Price consolidating back above the trend line. Needs to close above 1.59262 to signal uptrend coninuation. Bullish Bullish Neutral
GBP/AUD 1.66242, 1.68729 Price back into consolidation ranges. Testing downward sloping trend resistance. Bullish Bearish Neutral

Saturday, 13 July 2013

Weekly wrap up 14/07/2013

Hey traders and welcome to this week's wrap up. An extremely volatile week with the FOMC minutes throwing more confusion into the mix; print more money, don't print more money, who knows what the Fed's thinking anymore. Key break outs from previous week somewhat negated on the back of the past week's event risks.

Aussie dollar weakness continues unabated with weaker unemployment figures weighing down the commodity currency. Even the promise of potential continuation of QE3 could not stop the free fall. AUD/USD however has put in a reverse hammer at key psychological level. Will see what happens this week.

Speaking of which, another big week with GDP and CPI figures on tap - I wonder when the fun will stop...ಠ_ಠ.


Key levels to watch

Pair Level(s) to watch Description Bias
EUR/USD 1.29924, 1.32 Strong close above 1.3 level. Changes the bearish outlook to neutral. Short term bullish bias in place. Neutral
EUR/JPY 128.795, 131.086, 132.745 Upward trending channel maintained. Likely to retest 1.325 level. First line of resistance at 1.31086. Ranging
EUR/GBP 0.85898 Consolidation above 0.86. Continue to watch for long opportunity. Bullish
EUR/AUD 1.39769, 1.4415 False break of head and shoulders pattern; new high set. Short term bullish, but still looking for short opportunity. Bullish
EUR/CHF 1.2363, 1.238 Close to the downside. False break of 1.238 level. Watch for short opportunity. Ranging
AUD/USD 0.90435, 0.91634 Extremely oversold; another new low set. Reverse hammer on the weekly chart. Watch for long opportunity. Bearish
AUD/JPY 89.087, 92.95 Strong rejection of price at 93 level. Looking for a restest of 89.087 support. Ranging
NZD/USD 0.78289, 0.74565 Reverse hammer on the weekly. May see price consolidating above 0.76868 level. Ranging
AUD/NZD 1.16521 Bearish close; looking like another extension to the downside. Watching price closely at 1.16521 level Bearish
AUD/CAD 0.94815 Another bearish weekly close signalling an extended run to the down side. Watching price at 0.94815 level. Bearish
USD/CHF 0.95132, 0.95529 Price consolidating this week below 0.95 after the previous week's false break. Should see one more leg down in the short term to 0.93 level. Ranging
USD/JPY 96.995, 99.9 Loss of 100 level. Looking at range between 100 and 97. Ranging
USD/CAD 1.04177, 1.05524 Loss of 1.055 level. Consolidation below this level for the week. Ranging
XAU/USD 1321 Stronger bullish close this week. Watching for short opportunity towards 1321 level. Bearish
SPX500 1686 Continued bull run on stocks. Looks to retest 1686 record high. Bullish
US Oil 103.6 Break of long term triangle. Watch for long opportunity this week. Bullish
GBP/USD 1.52, 1.52813 Retracement this week. Watch for short opportunity at 1.52813 level. Bearish
GBP/JPY 151.727, 149.434 Bearish scenario still valid. Watching for a break to the downside of the current range. Bearish
GBP/CAD 1.58770, 1.58 Break of upward sloping trend line. Well into correction move now, targeting 1.55. Watching for retracement entry opportunity. Bearish
GBP/AUD 1.63828, 1.662, 1.68729 Close above 1.662. Head and shoulders pattern faked out. Price back into consolidation ranges. Ranging

Tuesday, 9 July 2013

Correction underway?

Hello traders and welcome to this evening's commentary. An interesting day spurred on abysmal UK data. This has seen some interesting action in the Aussie and European crosses. Unfortunately I was unable to take advantage of a great pin bar fake out setup on the GBP/AUD which formed on the four hour chart.

From last week's commentary, I was watching closely for the head and shoulders confirmation. This pattern completed on both the EUR/AUD and the GBP/AUD yesterday with the ensuing price action setup occurring today around midday AEST. Unfortunately day job takes priority. It was good looking setup which paid out roughly 4:1. Over the European session, losses on the GBP/AUD accelerated capping off an almost 200 pips decline.

I have marked out the typical head and shoulders break out target which is measured from the break out point. The distance is typically measured as the highest point of the head to the neckline. Will be watching for an opportunity for an entry on any short term retracement as there is still plenty of room for the price action to run.


Monday, 8 July 2013

Long entry on EUR/JPY on fake out setup off 129.493 level. Entry @ 129.863. Stop @ 129.363. Targeting 131 level.

Sunday, 7 July 2013

US Dollar Steams Ahead

Hi traders and welcome to the weekend wrap up. This past week saw some very positive news out of the US and very much shite news out of Europe. A positive NFP print capped off the USD gains with more event risk coming up in the new week. I have added a quick link to the economic calendar over at FxStreet. You can find it on the side bar navigation.

Key levels for the coming week:

Pair Level(s) to watch Description Bias
EUR/USD 1.27953 Closes above key level 1.27953. Upward sloping trend line also a key level. Watch for short opportunity. Bearish
EUR/JPY 129.738, 129.493 Narrow range in the short term. Look for breakout early this week. Ranging
EUR/GBP 0.85894 Close above key level. Watch for long opportunity. Bullish
EUR/AUD 1.4073, 1.42546 Upward sloping trend line held this week. Persisting Aussie weakness, but definitely oversold. Ranging
EUR/CHF 1.2363, 1.238 Slightly bullish this week. Congestion range coming up. Break of 1.238 to confirm stronger bullish momentum. Ranging
AUD/USD 0.91634, 0.9, 0.877 Another new low set for the end of the week. Continued bearish trend below 0.91634. Bearish
AUD/JPY 89.087, 92.95 Weekly close above 91. Turns bias towards testing 93 level. Bullish
NZD/USD 0.78289, 0.74565 Barely closes above bottom of consolidation range. May break early in the week. Bearish
AUD/NZD 1.17336, 1.18484 Bullish close this week. May begin correction run this week. Bearish
AUD/CAD 0.96389, 0.94815 Close above 0.96389 required to confirm possible bullish scenario. Short pin signal, but dangerous due to oversold conditions. Bearish
USD/CHF 0.95529 Bullish close above 0.95529. Watch for long opportunity this week. Next target, 0.98 area. Bullish
USD/JPY 99.88, 100.70 Bullish close above 100 level for the week. Look for long opportunity back towards this level. Bullish
USD/CAD 1.055, 1.065 Confirmed close above 1.055. Watch for long opportunities this week targeting 1.065. Bullish
XAU/USD 1236.8 Persistent strength in bear trend. Watch for short entry signal. Bearish
SPX500 1654, 1600 Price action was bullish this week with a firm hold of 1600 level. Scenario is neutral for now. Neutral
US Oil 103.6 Huge move for oil this week. Testing the upper trend line of long term triangle. Bullish
GBP/USD 1.51754 Strong bearish momenum. Testing lower bound trend line of symmetrical triangle. Bearish
GBP/JPY 151.727, 149.434 Pin bar fake out on the weekly chart. Watch for short setup this week. Ranging
GBP/CAD 1.58770, 1.58 Break of upward sloping trend line. Well into correction move now, targeting 1.55 Bearish
GBP/AUD 1.662, 1.63828 Pin bar at key level; heads and shoulders pattern not yet confirmed. Watch for short opportunities back towards 1.662 level. Ranging

As always, good luck for the coming week.

Wednesday, 3 July 2013

Risk off day?

Evening traders and welcome to the US session. We have had a relatively risk adverse day with Yen strength and European woes central themes of the day. USD/JPY has lost the 100 handle. Strongest currency by far today appears to be the GBP, bucking the risk off trend.

EUR/GBP collapsed from a strong resistance level today. Unfortunately, I missed that opportunity. Pin bar formed last night and the move was well underway by the time I woke up this morning.

Chart in focus for me today is the EUR/JPY. Few things of note:

  • Price is bound within upward sloping channel in the medium term.
  • Significant drop today, breaking the short term uptrend on the H4 chart.
  • MVAs starting to turn.
Still keeping a close eye on this one, especially at the 129.5-129.8 area. Will be looking for a sell signal forming in this area in the next 24 hours, targeting the 127.4 area.



The 4th July celebrations US tomorrow, so markets will be relatively quiet. EU interest rate decision on tap and then the NFPs to round out the week. Good luck traders and we'll talk to you again tomorrow.

Tuesday, 2 July 2013

Itching to trade...

Hi all; sitting here with an itchy trigger finger, but can't doing anything about it. Price action has been frustrating. Following significant levels have been cracked so far:
  • 100 level for US/JPY
  • New high for US dollar index
Price action, however has been less than definitive. See-sawing movement and unconvincing price action all around (at least from my perspective anyway).

Looks like I'll be on the sidelines again. Many times before I've rushed in on a night like this only to have trades go against me more often than not. To those of you who are finding better opportunities ... good luck!

Monday, 1 July 2013

Range trading order of the day...

Hey traders and welcome to today's commentary. Not much going on today with most pairs in consolidation ranges. Just an update from my weekend wrap up. Failed to notice that there were a couple of heads and shoulders patterns forming in certain pairs. Albeit, the neckline is running with the trend. Will still keep a close eye on these patterns today.

Saturday, 29 June 2013

Weekly update 29/06/2013

Hello traders and welcome to the weekly recap for the week ending 29/06/2013. Quick update on my trade on Friday. Order was stopped out on the back of Aussie dollar weakeness as the US dollar continued to surge on the back QE tapering speculation.

Heading into a week full of event risks to start the new financial year with the following data on tap:

Mon EUR CPI
TUE AUD RBA interest rate decision
THU GBP BOE interest rate decision
THU EUR EUR interest rate decision and monetary statement
FRI USD The almighty non farm payrolls pring (NFP)

Key levels for the coming week:

Pair Level(s) Description Bias
EUR/USD 1.3 - 1.31 Potential short entry on reverse pin bar fakeout. Bullish above 1.31 Bearish
EUR/JPY 129.483, 127, 125.162 Barely closed above the downward sloping trend line starting from May top. Outlook neutral for the moment. Neutral
EUR/GBP 0.85894, 0.847, 0.84 Price rejected from key level (pin bar formation). Will watch for short trade opportunity. Bullish above 0.8589 Neutral
EUR/AUD 1.4396, 1.41681, 1.39769 Aussie weakness persisting. Price may be targeting 1.4396 retest this week. Bullish
AUD/USD 0.93864, 0.9, 0.877 Fresh multi-year low. Targeting 0.9 psychological level, then 0.877. Bearish
AUD/JPY 89.087, 92.95 Price consollidating between 89 and 93 levels. Neutral
NZD/USD 0.78128, 0.74565 Still in consolidation range. Overall bias is still bearish. Bearish
AUD/NZD 1.18484, 1.17336 Aussie unable to gather any bullish momentum. May see a bearish extension this week. Bearish
AUD/CAD 0.96389, 0.9569, 0.94815 Watching for short entry signal at 0.96389 level. Bearish
USD/CHF 0.95529, 0.935, 0.92054 Ranging price action. Watch for long entry at 0.935 level. Bullish
USD/JPY 99.879, 96.995, 98 Watching for long entry back towards the 98 level Bullish
XAU/USD 1243, 1273 Persistent strength in bear trend. Watch for short entry signal. Bearish
SPX500 1624, 1600 Expecting bearish continuation. Technically into a corrective zig zag pattern. Bearish
USDOLLAR 10876, 10576 Strong bullish momentum. Will probably look to crack 10876 this week. A disappointing NFP could sink the trend. Bullish
US Oil 97.63 Price still consolidating below the 98 level. Neutral at the moment. Set short entry at 97.32 level. Close above 97.65 confirms bullish scenario. Neutral
USD/CAD 1.045, 1.055 Close above 1.045 level cofirms bullish scenario. Watch for long entry signals. Bullish
GBP/USD 1.51754 Strong bearish momenum. Watch for retracement opportunity for short. Short-term correction possible. Bearish
GBP/JPY 151.849, 150.458, 149.698 Ranging price action. Slightly bullish. Watch for long opportunity this week. Bullish
GBP/CAD 1.60415, 1.58770 Price consolidating below 1.60415. Only above this level is bullish scenario restored. Bearish
GBP/AUD 1.667, 1.663 Bullish momentum. Continuation should be confirmed if price closes above 1.667. Bullish

Good luck trading this week!

Thursday, 27 June 2013

Coming to financial year end 12/13

Good evening traders. We are one day out from the last business day of the financial year. Docket is heavy with US data:

- jobless claims
- personal consumption
- home sales

Have taken a short position on a symmetrical triangle formation on EUR/AUD - trading with the down trend and a basic inside bar break out price action signal. With key data on tap, stop is tight.

Entry @1.39957 with a stop @1.4029. Strategy will be quite tight. After initial move of 20 pips, will tighten the stop to break even.


Looking for some continuation into key support area @1.3824. Good luck trading out there all.